San Mateo County can opt out of regional transit measure

Details on the ballot measure have yet to be finalized, but the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the region’s transit financing agency, recently conducted polling for a few options, one of which would include San Mateo County, along with three other Bay Area counties, such as San Francisco and Alameda. It proposed a 10-year, half-cent sales tax that would initially prioritize the fiscal cliffs of major operators, like BART and Caltrain, generating $560 million each year. 

A nine-county measure was also previously discussed, though that option is longer considered. 

“This is probably the best path forward,” Dave Canepa, MTC commissioner and president of the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, said. “There were a lot of people who were concerned about the measure, and I just think, for where we’re at right now … this gives us flexibility and the ability to engage in more constructive dialogue.” 

Some of San Mateo County’s elected officials voiced their concern over the regional transit measure, in part because it could impede their efforts to renew Measure A, a county-specific half-cent sales tax that goes toward transportation-related projects and agencies. But on its own, Measure A is not likely to dig Caltrain out of its structural deficit, which is expected to be $600 million over the next 10 years. By July 2026, the average annual deficit will be at least $75 million, according to January estimates. 

“The question that is there now is, how do you fund those BART stations in San Mateo County? And then the other thing is, is the Measure A authorization going to be enough to cover the Caltrain deficit?” Canepa said. “Measure A gives Caltrain a contribution. Now, what happens if you use this pot to fund Caltrain with its deficit? What does the math look like? So if you’re taking more from the pot, how do you fund other [projects]?”

MTC Commissioner Gina Papan said she is glad that San Mateo County was given the opt-out option for the recent transit measure bill. There is no question agencies like BART and Caltrain are in poor fiscal shape, but she said she’d like to see more accountability before they receive large sums of money from taxpayers. 

“[The transit measure] would definitely aid them; however, the only thing that would ensure sustainability is accountability,” she said. “Caltrain has to do some reevaluation because we also need the grade separations, and they did not handle that well at all. We were looking for the Broadway grade separations to be the beginning of a lot of projects, but right now, Caltrain really has handled it exceptionally poorly.”

The intersection at the Broadway Station in Burlingame is frequently cited as the most dangerous rail crossing in the state, given the 13 vehicle collisions that have occurred on or near the intersection since 2016 — which included two fatalities. But recent estimates to build a long-awaited grade separation more than doubled from 2022 estimates, going from $316 million to $889 million as of 2025. The increase was due to several factors, a main one being Caltrain’s inaccurate 2022 estimate, which was derived primarily from design, not construction, consultants. 

“MTC has hired independent auditors to look at four operators, including how they spent the money they’ve already been given, because we need to get a good idea of what the results are,” Papan said. She said that the audit results, which assess both Caltrain and BART, should be completed around April.