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Caltrain passengers are seen at the San Mateo Station.
Despite a ridership boost since electrification, Caltrain’s operating budget deficit is expected to increase to more than $600 million over the next 10 years.
According to a recent presentation at the Caltrain board meeting Dec. 9, starting in fiscal year 2027 — which begins July 2026 — through 2034, the average annual deficit will be about $75 million each year.
Alex Burnett, Caltrain’s financial strategy consultant, said the increased deficit projections are to be expected, given compounding shortfalls each year, unless a surge in revenue or additional funding occurs.
Caltrain has relied heavily on its electric train fleet to increase service and ultimately boost ridership and income. And over the last few months, the figures look promising.
“Average weekday ridership is up considerably. We’ve seen explosive growth on our off-peak weekend ridership,” Burnett said.
But even though the weekend ridership is now close to 2019 levels, October average weekday ridership was still only 40% of what it was in October 2019 — about 27,000 a couple months ago, compared to 70,000 prepandemic. Recovering to 100% prepandemic ridership levels is not expected to occur for about another decade, even with generous estimates.
Burnett cautioned that even though this year and next year won’t operate in a significant deficit, that’s mostly because one-time funds helped offset the financial imbalance the agency is already facing.
“This notion of a fiscal cliff, in our estimation, is the wrong metaphor because we are already going down that slide, and the fact is that those fiscal year ’25 and ’26 numbers are being offset by a considerable amount of one-time monies that we have from Measure RR and other sources that are being used to offset annual operating costs,” he said.
The issue is particularly salient, as regional transit leaders have worked toward crafting a multicounty 2026 ballot measure to raise billions of dollars, and in large part, address some of the largest operators’ deficits, such as Caltrain. Many elected officials in San Mateo County have long been skeptical of regional measures that would seem to bail out operators like Bay Area Rapid Transit, which is facing a $300 million annual deficit in the near future.
But while BART’s average annual operating deficit is higher than Caltrain’s by dollar amount, it is still only a small percentage of its total operating budget. By contrast, Caltrain’s deficit is about 30% of its operating budget, according to a Caltrain presentation.
“Our [deficit] on a dollar basis is relatively smaller but when you look at it as a percentage of our budget, Caltrain is facing a considerable deficit,” Burnett said.
In addition to potential funds from a regional transit measure, he added they may need to explore a range of options, including service cuts, layoffs or fare increases in the future, depending on ridership growth.
(650) 344-5200 ext. 102
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(4) comments
"But even though the weekend ridership is now close to 2019 levels, October average weekday ridership was still only 40% of what it was in October 2019 — about 27,000 a couple months ago, compared to 70,000 prepandemic. Recovering to 100% prepandemic ridership levels is not expected to occur for about another decade, even with generous estimates. "
When you spend $600M on a highway expansion that increases capacity, air pollution, GHG emissions ... you are also attacking ridership on Caltrain. Now all these company shuttles don't have to stay in traffic anymore, so less need to use the train.
So first they spent $600 on something that wasn't needed, now they want a $600M bailout. That is $1.2B of tax payer money to fund mismanagement.
Rico E. Medina and David Canepa were part of both those bad decisions.
Do people know that the Institute for Local Government (ILG) - an Organization that is "Promoting Good Government at the Local Level" since 1955 was founded with the help of the Ford Foundation?
Unsurprisingly the main focus points of local governments ever since have been "land use", "circulation" and "parking lots" rather than "health and happiness" or "quality of life".
Just recently the Mercury News found out that MTC - the organization holding the bridge toll funds - is using money that should go to Public Transit as a slush fund. The money ends up in more car-centric projects and in financing bonds to prepare for even more car-centric projects.
If all the tax measures that are always promising more money for public and active transportation would actually send the money to public and active transportation, but Commissioners at MTC (e.g. David Canepa, Gina Papan) or at SMCTA (Carlos Romero, Rico E. Medina, Mark Nagales, Board of Supervisors) always find ways to move that money to highway expansion projects or other car-centric projects. ILG wants it this way and our local governments are following.
Um, excuse me but couldn’t this Caltrain budget deficit have been avoided, potentially forever if Caltrain didn’t waste what, over $2 billion dollars, electrifying their trains? Vote NO on any proposed increases because your money will only go towards paying ever increasing pensions and benefits and further boondoggle spending, such as on electrification. BTW, how about those ongoing Southern California fires which will emit enough carbon to cover the next 100 years, or more, of theoretical carbon savings from EVs?
Pay cuts and charge a higher fare to ride would solve the problem.
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