Caltrain’s leadership is largely eliminating service cuts as a potential solution to its ballooning deficit, but it is still contemplating other methods such as increasing fares or reducing Clipper card discounts.
The agency has been able to stave off a significant shortfall this fiscal year with some help from state funds, but Chief Financial Officer Kate Jordan Steiner said the gap funding won’t be a reliable source of assistance long term, even though the agency is still hoping to secure more state funding in the near future as part of a $2 billion ask from state Sen. Jesse Arreguin, D-Berkeley, and Assemblymember Mark Gonzalez, D-Los Angeles, to help fund transit agencies throughout the state. If approved, Caltrain would receive a portion of the funds but it’s unclear exactly how much.
The agency, along with other Bay Area transit operators, are working on a regional transit measure which could go before voters in 2026 and help narrow the deficit.
Starting in fiscal year 2027 — which begins in July 2026 — the agency is projecting a $67 million deficit, slightly higher than originally predicted. By fiscal year 2034, the shortfall is expected to reach $82 million.
Caltrain has also limited its capital improvement projects, focusing mostly on those that are for maintaining current service, rather than starting new infrastructure projects.
“We’re able to do the bare minimum and we’re not in a great position to do the extra things we may want to do,” Chief of Staff Casey Fromson said. “We’re focusing on keeping a state of good repair.”
During a previous board meeting, staff had presented numerous suggestions, which included possible service cuts, though most staff and board members agreed that option would put the agency in a worse position long term.
“With one-time funding running out after [fiscal year 2026], this deficit is not something we can cut our way out of. We are working to drive revenue increases including growing ridership and parking revenue, looking at additional fare increases and removing the Clipper discount,” Steiner said.
However, other strategies are still on the table. Adrian Brandt, chair of the Caltrain Citizens Advisory Committee, said there should be stronger citation enforcement for those who don’t pay the fares. He referenced a Caltrain estimated figure of about 2,800 potential citations that could have been issued — but weren’t — last month, which “highlights a fare collection problem,” he said.
Several months ago, Ray Mueller, former board member and current San Mateo County supervisor, also voiced concern over the recommendation of increasing fares without shoring up fare enforcement.
Dan Lieberman, Caltrain spokesperson, said conductors frequently issue citations to nonfare payers, but it must also be balanced with the consequences that come with delaying a train’s schedule. He added that, in the last several months, the agency has ramped up fare enforcement.
The board plans to adopt an updated budget for next fiscal year in June.
(2) comments
Why is there so much focus on fare evasion on Caltrain when cheating is rampant in the Express Lanes on 101. More than 40% of drivers in the Express Lanes are now selecting "3/free" on their transponders. When I drive next to these lanes, however, it seems a fraction of them actually have 3 people. Meanwhile, we are on track to fund >$600M in Express Lane expansion on 101 and 92, without anyone raising the toll evasion issue. Meanwhile, Caltrain is begging for consistent funding but we must first make sure that we address the cheating issue. Why do we ignore cheating among drivers (who, on average, are wealthier than those who take public transit), but obsess on cheating by those who ride transit?
The biggest takeaway, “Caltrain’s leadership is largely eliminating service cuts as a potential solution…” which means, they expect the public, riders or not, to subsidize ever increasing transit worker raises, pensions, and benefits. Note that all of these so-called solutions result in taking more money out of your pocket.
I’m okay with taking more money out of fare scofflaws but the bigger question is how many scofflaws pay their fines. 25%, 90%? And is Caltrain leadership saying they weren’t enforcing fare evaders? Regardless, more reasons for voters to vote NO on any measures to increase revenue for an agency who won’t practice any sort of fiscal management. If you have voter remorse, don’t worry, Caltrain will propose more measures again and again and again.
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