Polls: About 60% of San Mateo County voters favor a transit measure

The first option presented to participants was a 10-year, half-cent sales tax that would initially prioritize the fiscal cliffs of major operators, like BART and Caltrain, generating $560 million each year. The second option is a 30-year, half-cent sales tax in addition to a parcel tax but may only comprise five counties, which would include San Mateo. A third option was an 11-year sales tax, anywhere from half cent to seven-eighths, generating $640 million annually. 

Most support came from the first and third options, however, all would require significant investment to succeed, Ruth Bernstein, CEO of EMC Research, said.

“The [first option] and the variable rate does exceed a majority for each of those, but they do fall short of the two-thirds threshold, so as of right now it would be very challenging to see them reach two-thirds — possibly a citizens initiative that only needs 50% could be viable,” she said. 

In San Mateo County, 59% of voters responded favorably to the first option – more so than the other presented alternatives. That was a slightly higher percentage than Contra Costa and even San Francisco counties. 

“I’m amazed at how well [the first scenario] polled with 59% support in San Mateo County. To me, there is a path forward to a regional solution, but the polling also showed that tax increases are not favorable right now and that getting that two-thirds support will take a great lift,” David Canepa, MTC commissioner and president of the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, said. “But I do see an appetite for support for public transit so I think we’re definitely … moving in the right direction.”

The poll also showed that 23% of voters in San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa and Alameda counties used public transportation daily or weekly. The poll also showed 36% used it rarely or never. 

The measure will prove critical toward addressing Caltrain’s fiscal challenges, as it’s facing an average $75 million annual deficit for nearly a decade starting fiscal year 2027. State Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, is also working to secure $2 billion in state funds to help close the financial gaps, however, the effort is still in the early stages. 

Caltrain Government Affairs Director Jason Baker said a 2026 ballot measure is critical. 

“We are working hard to cut costs and increase ridership and find other sources of nonfare revenue. Ridership is growing … but the truth is, we have a deficit we can’t cut our way out of,” Baker said. “This conversation is timely and critical for Caltrain and a number of other operators in the Bay Area.”