The Wright Flyer went 6.8 mph for 12 seconds in its 120-foot journey Dec. 17, 1903, near Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. Other attempts the same day lengthened the journey to 852 feet, but the first flight of that day achieved something humankind was trying to do for centuries.
That was 122 years ago Wednesday, nearly as long as the oldest lifetime. It feels we’ve made tremendous progress since, but have we?
As with any new technology, air flight was a tremendous leap, with several other smaller leaps after it. The first was reaching about 90 mph in the 1940s through propellers. The jet age of the 1950s was a big leap to about 500 mph, then 600 mph in the 1960s. In 1975, the Concorde pushed commercial air travel to 1,350 mph, though the planes were said to have been able to travel 1,711 mph. The Concorde was retired after 2003, in part because of high maintenance costs, lowered interest because of a fatal crash and diminished air travel after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Yet it never really took off because, while it was hours faster across the Atlantic, its sonic boom caused complaints, the ticket prices were quite high and they were difficult to maintain. The fastest piloted plane ever built was the X-15, a research aircraft that flew to the edge of space at 4,520 mph in 1967. At that speed, it could go around the world in about five hours, enough time for a nice in-flight movie and a nap.
There is a big difference between 6.8 mph and 4,520 mph but there is a reason why we settled on around 575 mph for the top speed of today’s commercial jets. It’s more fuel efficient and the amount of time saved by flying faster was nominal.
While we herald our ability to make all sorts of technical advancements, we are still flying around the Earth at around the same speed we were 65 years ago.
You may wonder, why the interest in all this flyboy?
Artificial intelligence. There is this idea that it’s the next big thing and could change everything. Or it could be like air travel that has one big advancement, then it’s little advancements from there. What are some other examples? The iPhone, still basically the same. The internet, still basically the same. The laptop computer, still basically the same though smaller and faster. Self-driving cars, happening now, will change a bit, but will still basically be the same. I’m actually pretty amazed there are actual self-driving cars right now. It’s almost sorcery, and it feels like we are just taking it for granted.
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So while we fret about the new technology that promises to come with AI, I think the big advancement, ChatGPT, already happened. Its large language model to understand and generate humanlike text was pretty huge, and a significant advancement from Siri and simple Google searches. But for now, AI is a supercharged version of a search function that can write better than many people (a slight indictment of our educational system, I might add). That makes it dangerous and subject to much discussion especially in academic settings where cheating can be a problem and critical thinking is waning.
There is also significant concern when it comes to socialization through AI, and its role in ensuring people looking for connection are getting it in appropriate ways and not through a computer which is inherently unhealthy but also teeters on danger when the communication is problematic. This is a problem for us all to consider and solve.
In the work world, we can expect it to assist in offloading busy work like research and organizing. Certainly manufacturing will benefit as automation will become more realistic and expansive. And we will be able to find some efficiencies.
Probably the likeliest next step will be more personalization and automation of our online experience specifically to sell us stuff in a variety of ways.
Robots taking over though? We are far from this, and its path will be exceedingly rocky. Have you seen a robot fold laundry? Walk? A first step will be helping our Roombas find dander, but that is nowhere near SkyNet.
There is potential, promise and problems with which to contend when it comes to AI. But for now, the big race is mainly about who will have the infrastructure in place to monetize it first; though, it reminds me of the race to link the world with fiber optic cables back in the day.
Perhaps AI is just taking flight, but too many things that already exist are being assigned to its descriptor. AI videos are just supercharged computer-generated imagery, ChatGPT is just supercharged internet searches and manufacturing robots are just supercharged automation. We may soon experience the equivalence of the jet age, but don’t be surprised if it takes a few decades … and maybe even longer.
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Plus, a lot of they market hype is likely to implode when most of the AI industry is unable to deliver enough profits to cover its cost.
Thanks for your column today, Mr. Mays, opining on the future of AI. I’d say the current status of AI that most people are exposed to has been ChatGPT or AI-assisted search engines. The problem with large language models is that the results, especially on the political front, can be largely based on the fake news and lies that have saturated the internet for the past decade. For instance, every time Wikipedia or AP or the NYT or any other fake news mainstream media source is cited, you can be sure the AI response is infused with fake news and lies. I’d say these chatbots aren’t the ultimate goal for the AI arena.
Instead, I see AI being the most value when it is monetized to companies and individuals. For instance, imagine an x-ray machine manufacturer includes AI to help medical professionals with analyzing x-rays and providing feedback on images. The x-ray manufacturer could offer this service for an additional cost or included in the price.
Imagine the multitude of so-called media bias organizations who determine bias based on surveys and polls. Not very scientific. Instead, they could “order” an AI model to vacuum up all of the articles from individual sources and provide a more objective view of bias. For instance, an analysis of the AP might show their prevalence of TDs articles is 90%.
Imagine you’re a research scientist with gobs of data from each step in a study. What could they do with that data? I don’t know, I’m not a research scientist, but…perhaps one who is could share their thoughts.
Imagine if we had AI software to analyze all of the LTE’s sent to the DJ in thepast decade. How many LTEs exhibit TDS vs. not? How many columns from the inimitable Mark Simon summarized the story of the past year, the “As the Sheriff’s World Turns” soap opera? How many predictions from Mr. Simon have come true? Sorry, Mr. Simon, I’m not picking on you – I’ve enjoyed immensely your soap opera summaries.
Let’s see what the future of AI brings – but I’d say the future is in monetization. Perhaps some of the work on this type of monetization is already occurring but we don’t hear about it. As it is now, the genie is out of the bottle. Perhaps we should ask AI what the future of AI will bring. And review their sources.
My day job is recruiting, I definitely think AI, specifically 'prompt engineering' is changing the way we review and scan resumes, its not perfect, but if you work with the Chat bots you can get fairly good readings on people's skillsets. I find it incredibly useful to summarize notes as well. Hope to see a future where AI plays an assistant type function but doesn't take jobs away.
Recently the AI Reels produced on Facebook are clownish. Animals of different wild life breeds facing off with each other - Giraffe vs Lion - etc or closer to home, baseball fans falling out of the stands from the top deck to the playing surface.
What is the point?
It will be interesting to see what transpires. Will we do the right thing and embrace AI or will we let our dislike of Trump and the perception his supporters are disproportionately benefitting from AI to halt its progress?Allowing China and the rest of the leadership role. China originally was.slownto embrace shipping which caused it to fall and be behind for centuries. Bernie is already calling for AI moratoriums.
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