Joint U.S.-Israeli air strikes against Iran are underway. Iran’s Supreme Leader has been killed in what appears to have been a decapitation strike—an effort to accelerate the regime’s collapse or force Tehran to acquiesce to U.S. and Israeli demands.
Marco Durazo
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told 60 Minutes that the Trump administration reserves the right to put boots on the ground in Iran, adding, “We’re willing to go as far as we need.” NBC News reports that President Trump has expressed interest in this option.
To many observers, this feels like Iraq in 2003 all over again.
The administration has begun using the phrase — or some variation of — “short-term pain for long-term gain.”
Let me be clear: my goal here is not to support or critique the Trump administration’s decision to attack Iran or the possibility of placing U.S. troops on the ground.
Instead, my objective is to highlight why comparisons to the 2003 invasion of Iraq — still vivid in the memories of many Americans — can be misleading when made without nuance. Failing to heed the lessons of the past can be dangerous.
If we are not careful, the pain may not be short — and the goals may remain elusive.
Iran is not Iraq.
The Iranian military has already shown itself to be a formidable adversary.
In 2003, when the United States invaded Iraq, I was a graduate student at MIT. The political science department is known for its expertise in security studies, and it was common to find active-duty military officers sitting alongside graduate students in seminars.
One concept we discussed frequently was asymmetrical warfare, particularly as we tried to anticipate how Iraq might respond to a U.S. invasion.
In simple terms, asymmetrical warfare occurs when two sides possess vastly unequal military capabilities. The weaker side compensates by employing unconventional strategies designed to survive, inflict losses and prolong the conflict.
Like Iran’s supreme leader today, Saddam Hussein was removed from power relatively early in the Iraq War. U.S. officials hoped Saddam’s capture would accelerate the regime’s collapse and allow a transitional government to stabilize the country.
That is not what happened.
The Iraqi military quickly dissolved. Members of the former regime’s officer corps turned to insurgency. Guerrilla warfare spread rapidly, and sectarian violence compounded an already unstable and violent environment.
Eventually Iraq stabilized — but at enormous cost to the United States.
This is where comparisons with Iran become more concerning.
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No one — including Iran — denies that U.S. military power is vastly superior. The difference may lie in Iran’s capacity to apply the principles of asymmetrical warfare.
There is already evidence of this.
Iran’s response to strategic bombing has included unconventional tactics designed not to match U.S. military power directly, but instead to impose economic and logistical costs on the United States and its allies.
Intelligence estimates suggest Iran possesses as many as 80,000 drones and can produce up to 500 per day. These drones are inexpensive and easily transported. Iranian Shahed drones, for example, cost roughly $20,000 to manufacture.
The cost to shoot them down is dramatically higher. U.S. interceptor missiles can range from $500,000 to $4 million each, and standard military practice recommends firing two interceptors to ensure a successful interception.
Last June alone, the United States reportedly fired roughly 150 interceptors in just 12 days to help defend Israel — a staggering cost. These interceptors are also time-consuming to manufacture.
This is asymmetrical warfare in practice.
Flood the skies with cheap drones and ballistic missiles. Force the United States and its allies to track threats moving at different speeds and altitudes simultaneously. Drain interceptor stockpiles while imposing enormous financial costs.
There is another factor in this equation: home-field advantage.
In warfare, where you fight can matter just as much as the weapons you bring.
More than half of Iran is mountainous terrain. The Zagros Mountains stretch across much of the western portion of the country, with peaks reaching nearly 14,000 feet. The Alborz Mountains seal off the north. These regions are defined by narrow passes, steep terrain and harsh conditions that make large-scale armored movement extremely difficult.
Any ground invasion of Iran would make Iraq — and even Afghanistan — look comparatively simple.
It would almost certainly produce higher casualties, higher costs and a much longer conflict.
Regardless of what one believes the Trump administration should do next, one lesson from history remains clear:
Military superiority does not automatically translate into victory.
Iran is not Iraq.
Marco Durazo, Ph.D., lives in San Bruno, teaches at USF, and is writing a book about Latino Immigrants and the U.S. military.
Dear Marco - you are not revealing anything new. It is your imagination that the two countries should be compared in this context. I am not sure what you are trying to articulate other than another hint of TDS. I would leave these very complicated military strategies to those we have elected. However, you may get a call from the DOW as they may still be in need of more armchair warriors.
You yourself called Dick Cheney out for pushing "for-ever wars" on America, now you think these clowns in the new "Department of War" have actually a strategy?
They used even the absolute identical, false reasoning of "weapons of mass destruction" and "first strike policy", Dick Cheney used.
Trump promised "America First", "No More Wars", and "reducing gas prices on the first day".
And then he basically started his own Vietnam and made sure he loses the midterm election bigly.
Easy now, I don't know if you don't read, but Trump did what every president before him promised they would, prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. This is not a war because wars last for extended periods of time and this conflict is basically over. This occurred because the Mullahs "factually" continued to enrich uranium and fund terror cells throughout the world. You probably didn't read that at CNN, Mother Goose or SMDJ.
Democrat Dick Cheney and Democrat George Bush made up "weapons of mass destruction " because like good democrats, the end justifies the means due to their unbridled hate for Trump.
Trump did as he promised and he wasn't stupid enough to trust Iran with a handshake and then hand them billions like Obama. This issue will be completely resolved shortly and when it is, I expect you to eat crow, step to the mic and say "I will no longer ignore the truth, Trump was right again and Trump is a winner."
CA Is Burning - Now that is the kind of humor I like - calling all the old GOP guys "Democrats" or "RHINO".
But there is a theory out there with The Cult: Every Accusation is also a Confession!
This would mean you are really saying that the Democrats have undermined the GOP.
Let's check your theory:
- Trump is a Democrat.
- Secretary Kennedy is basically Democrat Royalty.
- Secretary Tulsi Gabbard is a Hawaiian Democrat.
- Secretary Scott Bessent's best friend is Soros.
- Musk is the California "Apostle of Green".
- Trump was trumping up the Cybertruck and Model 3 on the white house lawn
- Stephen Miller is coming from a Jewish liberal family from Santa Monica.
- Steve Bannon comes from a catholic, working class, pro-union family.
- Tucker Carlson is the child of a San Francisco hippie and a NPR dad.
- ... and there is more ...
Should we look closer into the policies like pro-union protectionism, tax increasing tariffs, privatizing companies (Intel, TikTok), embracing communists, how about "Protecting the biological female from stronger males" ... like that was ever such a Republican priority (wink, wink, notch, notch).
Add in the constant attacks on the FBI - an organization that was always led by a Republican.
I think you are correct, the Democrats have undermined the GOP of old. The accusation really was a confession. Good Work.
easygerd - if I were you I would stick with your elusive mandatory bike programs. There is no comparison whatever. We did have evidence nuclear proliferation and 13 days into a conflict does not constitute a for-ever war. Why would the world let a bunch of perverted turban wearers dictate how much oil should be allowed into the mundane economy? Let's talk in 6 months and see where we are.
You and I have no information how Bibi tricked Donnie into this, but the director of the National Counterterrorism Center has full clearance - and he just resigned.
Joe Kent, Trump's hand-picked director of the National Counterterrorism Center, announced his resignation on Tuesday, citing his concerns about the justification for military strikes in Iran and saying he “cannot in good conscience” back the Trump administration’s war.
“Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” Kent said in a statement posted on social media.
eGerd – TBot here. Hilarious that you think someone with full clearance is allowed to attend any and all meetings they’d like to attend. Perhaps you missed the report that Joe Kent was an alleged leaker who was iced out of intelligence briefings. Perhaps you missed Mr. Kent’s previous memos/social media expressing support for Trump’s actions in Iran.
You and I have no information on the extent of why Mr. Kent attempted to stab Trump in the back but the bottom line is that for America, it is a great thing that Mr. Kent is no longer in the position he is in. Perhaps you should follow Mr. van Ulden’s advice and “stick with your elusive mandatory bike programs.”
TBot old friend, Joe Kent is Trump's best friend, as right-wing as they come.
... and let's not forget the program was "totally obliterated" just last June during Israel's 12-day war. Were they lying then or now?
Kent knows that The Cult does not want this war. And he knows that this just creates the next wave of terrorists. No one knows that better than the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center - he doesn't even need a briefing to understand that. History is such a great teacher, for people that like to read. And history tells us this isn't anything like Irak - this is way worse.
eGerd – TBot here. Methinks you’re confusing Joe Kent with Clark Kent as to Trump’s best friend. When you speak of “The Cult” I’ll clarify that you’re speaking of Democrats. And it isn’t that the “The Cult” of Democrats doesn’t want the war; they want the opposite of what Trump wants and does, even if they need to fool a few folks into sacrificing their souls. And if history is such a great teacher, does that explain why folks, for 47 years did nothing while Iraq was killing Americans? Perhaps it is because of history that Trump is doing what he’s doing, even though Democrats with TDS will never approve. Trump doesn’t care because his goal is to Make America Great Again, Again.
As for the program being “totally obliterated” it likely was but who is going to stop Iran from ramping up again? I guess Israel and the USA are going to. Please stop with easily debunked feeble Democrat talking points. We all see through it and it only lowers the credibility of those using them. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
TBot, remember what 'CA is Burning' was teaching us earlier: MAGA's mantry is "every accusation is also a confession".
It's cute you think I'm fond of Democrats, when you are the one supporting them so passionately:
- Trump is a Democrat.
- Secretary Kennedy is basically Democrat Royalty.
- Secretary Tulsi Gabbard is a Hawaiian Democrat.
- Secretary Scott Bessent's best friend is George Soros.
And your Democrat friend Tulsi Gabbard last year said something like ...
- before the 12-day war: 'there was no imminent threat'
- after the 12-day war: "if there was any imminent danger, the President obliterated it"
- now: 'the imminent threat only exists in the minds of a small political leadership group".
The real intelligence community and real military leaders keep saying that killing the spiritual leader who was against nukes and replacing him with his son who likes nukes, was definitely a mistake.
PS.: ...btw. there are other parties in California, America, and the World.
eGerd – TBot here. There you go again…devolving into throwing stuff at the wall and hoping something sticks. It doesn’t. If what you say about Trump and Kennedy and Gabbard and Bessent are true, then why are Democrats throwing fits each time these folks are Making America Great Again, Again? Your emotions are clouding your logic, again. Stick with your elusive mandatory bike programs.
TBot, I'm glad you acknowledge my superior knowledge about bike programs, which in turn also makes me an expert on everything health, aging, quality of life, education, and of course addiction and fossil fuel.
Because the wars on Venezuela are all about America's Great Again addiction to driving and fossil fuel. And since I'm one of the few voices in San Mateo County who has been able to rid themselves of that addiction, I am - by definition - also one of the few unbiased voices.
And the answer to what Republicans and Democrats are doing is always the same: Political Theater to get more campaign donations.
Both parties are tricking their "Cult of Voters" nicely.
Thanks for your guest perspective, Mr. Durazo, but the only way Iran is the new Iraq is if you replace the “n” with a “q.” “This” doesn’t feel at all like Iraq because our weapons systems have become more advanced as has the quality of our intelligence assets. I’d say your statement, “Iran is not Iraq,” is true. As for staggering costs, those costs could be paid for by continued DOGE savings and by preventing criminals and terrorists crossing our border from taxpayer funding. Look at the staggering waste that Democrats in Minnesota allowed to occur under their watch. We’re still tallying the waste in California that Democrats allowed to occur, such as EDD fraud, welfare fraud, etc. More power to the U.S. and Israel to continue their actions. BTW, You say, “Military superiority does not automatically translate into victory.” Sometimes it does.
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(14) comments
Dear Marco - you are not revealing anything new. It is your imagination that the two countries should be compared in this context. I am not sure what you are trying to articulate other than another hint of TDS. I would leave these very complicated military strategies to those we have elected. However, you may get a call from the DOW as they may still be in need of more armchair warriors.
Who are you trying to fool here, Dirk?
You yourself called Dick Cheney out for pushing "for-ever wars" on America, now you think these clowns in the new "Department of War" have actually a strategy?
They used even the absolute identical, false reasoning of "weapons of mass destruction" and "first strike policy", Dick Cheney used.
Trump promised "America First", "No More Wars", and "reducing gas prices on the first day".
And then he basically started his own Vietnam and made sure he loses the midterm election bigly.
Easy now, I don't know if you don't read, but Trump did what every president before him promised they would, prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. This is not a war because wars last for extended periods of time and this conflict is basically over. This occurred because the Mullahs "factually" continued to enrich uranium and fund terror cells throughout the world. You probably didn't read that at CNN, Mother Goose or SMDJ.
Democrat Dick Cheney and Democrat George Bush made up "weapons of mass destruction " because like good democrats, the end justifies the means due to their unbridled hate for Trump.
Trump did as he promised and he wasn't stupid enough to trust Iran with a handshake and then hand them billions like Obama. This issue will be completely resolved shortly and when it is, I expect you to eat crow, step to the mic and say "I will no longer ignore the truth, Trump was right again and Trump is a winner."
CA Is Burning - Now that is the kind of humor I like - calling all the old GOP guys "Democrats" or "RHINO".
But there is a theory out there with The Cult: Every Accusation is also a Confession!
This would mean you are really saying that the Democrats have undermined the GOP.
Let's check your theory:
- Trump is a Democrat.
- Secretary Kennedy is basically Democrat Royalty.
- Secretary Tulsi Gabbard is a Hawaiian Democrat.
- Secretary Scott Bessent's best friend is Soros.
- Musk is the California "Apostle of Green".
- Trump was trumping up the Cybertruck and Model 3 on the white house lawn
- Stephen Miller is coming from a Jewish liberal family from Santa Monica.
- Steve Bannon comes from a catholic, working class, pro-union family.
- Tucker Carlson is the child of a San Francisco hippie and a NPR dad.
- ... and there is more ...
Should we look closer into the policies like pro-union protectionism, tax increasing tariffs, privatizing companies (Intel, TikTok), embracing communists, how about "Protecting the biological female from stronger males" ... like that was ever such a Republican priority (wink, wink, notch, notch).
Add in the constant attacks on the FBI - an organization that was always led by a Republican.
I think you are correct, the Democrats have undermined the GOP of old. The accusation really was a confession. Good Work.
easygerd - if I were you I would stick with your elusive mandatory bike programs. There is no comparison whatever. We did have evidence nuclear proliferation and 13 days into a conflict does not constitute a for-ever war. Why would the world let a bunch of perverted turban wearers dictate how much oil should be allowed into the mundane economy? Let's talk in 6 months and see where we are.
You and I have no information how Bibi tricked Donnie into this, but the director of the National Counterterrorism Center has full clearance - and he just resigned.
Joe Kent, Trump's hand-picked director of the National Counterterrorism Center, announced his resignation on Tuesday, citing his concerns about the justification for military strikes in Iran and saying he “cannot in good conscience” back the Trump administration’s war.
“Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” Kent said in a statement posted on social media.
eGerd – TBot here. Hilarious that you think someone with full clearance is allowed to attend any and all meetings they’d like to attend. Perhaps you missed the report that Joe Kent was an alleged leaker who was iced out of intelligence briefings. Perhaps you missed Mr. Kent’s previous memos/social media expressing support for Trump’s actions in Iran.
You and I have no information on the extent of why Mr. Kent attempted to stab Trump in the back but the bottom line is that for America, it is a great thing that Mr. Kent is no longer in the position he is in. Perhaps you should follow Mr. van Ulden’s advice and “stick with your elusive mandatory bike programs.”
TBot old friend, Joe Kent is Trump's best friend, as right-wing as they come.
... and let's not forget the program was "totally obliterated" just last June during Israel's 12-day war. Were they lying then or now?
Kent knows that The Cult does not want this war. And he knows that this just creates the next wave of terrorists. No one knows that better than the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center - he doesn't even need a briefing to understand that. History is such a great teacher, for people that like to read. And history tells us this isn't anything like Irak - this is way worse.
eGerd – TBot here. Methinks you’re confusing Joe Kent with Clark Kent as to Trump’s best friend. When you speak of “The Cult” I’ll clarify that you’re speaking of Democrats. And it isn’t that the “The Cult” of Democrats doesn’t want the war; they want the opposite of what Trump wants and does, even if they need to fool a few folks into sacrificing their souls. And if history is such a great teacher, does that explain why folks, for 47 years did nothing while Iraq was killing Americans? Perhaps it is because of history that Trump is doing what he’s doing, even though Democrats with TDS will never approve. Trump doesn’t care because his goal is to Make America Great Again, Again.
As for the program being “totally obliterated” it likely was but who is going to stop Iran from ramping up again? I guess Israel and the USA are going to. Please stop with easily debunked feeble Democrat talking points. We all see through it and it only lowers the credibility of those using them. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
TBot, remember what 'CA is Burning' was teaching us earlier: MAGA's mantry is "every accusation is also a confession".
It's cute you think I'm fond of Democrats, when you are the one supporting them so passionately:
- Trump is a Democrat.
- Secretary Kennedy is basically Democrat Royalty.
- Secretary Tulsi Gabbard is a Hawaiian Democrat.
- Secretary Scott Bessent's best friend is George Soros.
And your Democrat friend Tulsi Gabbard last year said something like ...
- before the 12-day war: 'there was no imminent threat'
- after the 12-day war: "if there was any imminent danger, the President obliterated it"
- now: 'the imminent threat only exists in the minds of a small political leadership group".
The real intelligence community and real military leaders keep saying that killing the spiritual leader who was against nukes and replacing him with his son who likes nukes, was definitely a mistake.
PS.: ...btw. there are other parties in California, America, and the World.
eGerd – TBot here. There you go again…devolving into throwing stuff at the wall and hoping something sticks. It doesn’t. If what you say about Trump and Kennedy and Gabbard and Bessent are true, then why are Democrats throwing fits each time these folks are Making America Great Again, Again? Your emotions are clouding your logic, again. Stick with your elusive mandatory bike programs.
TBot, I'm glad you acknowledge my superior knowledge about bike programs, which in turn also makes me an expert on everything health, aging, quality of life, education, and of course addiction and fossil fuel.
Because the wars on Venezuela are all about America's Great Again addiction to driving and fossil fuel. And since I'm one of the few voices in San Mateo County who has been able to rid themselves of that addiction, I am - by definition - also one of the few unbiased voices.
And the answer to what Republicans and Democrats are doing is always the same: Political Theater to get more campaign donations.
Both parties are tricking their "Cult of Voters" nicely.
Thanks for your guest perspective, Mr. Durazo, but the only way Iran is the new Iraq is if you replace the “n” with a “q.” “This” doesn’t feel at all like Iraq because our weapons systems have become more advanced as has the quality of our intelligence assets. I’d say your statement, “Iran is not Iraq,” is true. As for staggering costs, those costs could be paid for by continued DOGE savings and by preventing criminals and terrorists crossing our border from taxpayer funding. Look at the staggering waste that Democrats in Minnesota allowed to occur under their watch. We’re still tallying the waste in California that Democrats allowed to occur, such as EDD fraud, welfare fraud, etc. More power to the U.S. and Israel to continue their actions. BTW, You say, “Military superiority does not automatically translate into victory.” Sometimes it does.
Your right. Iraq wasn't 20 days from having refined weapons grade Uranium.
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Keep the discussion civilized. Absolutely NO personal attacks or insults directed toward writers, nor others who make comments.
Keep it clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Don't threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
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Anyone violating these rules will be issued a warning. After the warning, comment privileges can be revoked.