Polling underway for regional transit measure

Earlier this month, MTC commissioners decided to move ahead with polling voters on several ballot measure options for the 2026 election. 

One option is a 30-year, half-cent sales tax generating $540 million applying to San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa and San Mateo counties, though the other Bay Area counties could opt in. About 90% of the funds in the first eight years would go to the highest-need operators, like Caltrain and BART. The second option is also 30 years, but would generate $1.5 billion as it would cover all nine Bay Area counties and would be funded via payroll or parcel tax. Other potential measures could include a shorter, 10-year version of the first option or incorporating different types of taxes into whichever measure is favored.

As a bus operator, SamTrans stands to gain from a regional transit measure, but not nearly as much as Caltrain. While SamTrans officials recently warned that expenses are beginning to outpace revenue, the bus system still remains in a more fiscally sound position than the rail agency. 

San Mateo County Supervisor Ray Mueller, a now-former SamTrans and Caltrain board member, said the county should boost its leverage by finding a way not to participate in the regional measure should the conditions end up unfavorable. 

“The best way to not become a donor county is to figure out on our own, what is the amount San Mateo County is short on for the contributions for the systems we use, and how can we collect that revenue independent of a regional measure — or cut costs?” he said. “That requires the boards to do the work now and be prepared to say to MTC, ‘we’ll take care of ourselves’ … if we don’t do that, we’re going to be beholden to whatever that ultimate regional measure is.” 

If the county does not participate, other counties, such as Santa Clara and San Francisco, would likely still contribute financially to the San Mateo County-based agency, but it would also be responsible for a higher proportion of investment. Caltrain is facing an average $75 million annual deficit for nearly a decade starting fiscal year 2027.

Adina Levin, a San Mateo County resident, cautioned against pursuing multiple, and potentially, siloed efforts during the board meeting. 

“Having a campaign that works together seems to me less risky than having four or five or six different campaigns happening at the same time, which may reduce the likelihood for voters,” Levin said. 

Polling should be completed between January and February.