Sure, California can swear off fossil fuels and shut down its nuclear plants, powering itself entirely with wind, water, and sun.
Leonard Rodberg
All it takes is getting used to weekly rolling blackouts.
Sure, California can swear off fossil fuels and shut down its nuclear plants, powering itself entirely with wind, water, and sun.
Leonard Rodberg
All it takes is getting used to weekly rolling blackouts.
Some energy predictions are tricky; this one isn’t. We can estimate how much electricity each solar panel and wind turbine will produce, and when they’ll produce it. Then we can plug those numbers into a computer, along with green advocates’ optimistic projections of future electricity demand, to see how supply and demand match up on an hourly and seasonal basis.
Even with vastly expanded battery storage capacity to smooth things out, the match is poor.
California will sometimes generate renewable energy in abundance, but grid operators will still face tough choices — such as disconnecting generators when there’s too much sun and little demand or firing up fossil-fuel based gas turbines when there’s no sun or wind at all.
During much of the year, especially in late summer and throughout December and January, solar and wind power will meet demand for some hours but not have enough excess to charge the batteries.
California might generate as much energy from wind and sun as it uses overall, but not when it’s needed. To keep the power flowing, the state will actually need up to 80 gigawatts of gas-fired backup capacity — far more than it has today — or risk repeated shortfalls.
Eighty gigawatts is enormous. California’s current peak demand is just over 52 gigawatts, but by 2050 — with millions of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and energy-hungry data centers — electric demand will be far higher.
Keeping all that backup generation on standby won’t come cheap. The cost of maintaining this fossil fuel capacity must be added to the already high cost of intermittent renewables like solar and wind.
A system powered solely by solar, wind, and hydro isn’t an engineering strategy; it’s a belief system. Zealotry and energy reliability don’t mix.
Some zealots who advocate for an all-renewable energy future have offered unrealistic scenarios for powering California while eliminating carbon emissions. Our recent studies show their plan for California would leave it short of power at least 50 days a year.
The state’s official energy plan isn’t much better. A new grid simulator — the Hourly Electric Grid Analysis, or HELGA — compares expected demand with renewable output on an hour-by-hour basis. It shows California’s plan would cost nearly a trillion dollars yet still require the grid to burn almost as much natural gas as it does today.
Like every other state, California will need large, zero-carbon generators that operate independently of the weather to meet its climate goals.
Realistically, that means nuclear power.
A fleet of advanced reactors running around the clock can provide reliable, carbon-free electricity. New designs — such as Bill Gates’s Natrium reactor with molten salt thermal storage — are engineered to ramp output up and down in response to grid demand. Others will operate continuously, supplying the grid or charging storage systems as needed.
California can reach its climate goals, but not through blind adherence to ideology. Clean, reliable power is possible, but only if the state faces reality about what it takes to get there.
Leonard Rodberg is professor emeritus of Urban Studies at Queens College, City University of New York.
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(4) comments
Thanks for your guest perspective, Mr. Rodberg, and your pragmatic approach to addressing California’s energy needs. Unfortunately, you have a Sisyphean task in convincing the powers-that-be who are slaves to “greenie” nonsense and impracticality, even though nuclear is the cleanest form of energy. We know “greenies” won’t receive as much “free” green money for advocating for nuclear, so…
A few years ago, Edward Ring penned an article providing his take on Mark Jacobson’s simulation report (https://californiaglobe.com/articles/examining-californias-renewable-energy-plan/). In that article, he concluded that although we may be able to cover 1000 square miles with solar panels on existing roofs, I’m not sure Californians want 10,000 square miles of land covered with windmills and 15,000 square miles of ocean covered with windmills to provide energy usage to meet demands, back then. As you’ve noted, what happens if the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine? And let’s not get started with what happens to the hazardous waste when solar panels end their useful life.
Regardless, keep on fighting the good fight. We can only hope California’s so-called leaders come to their senses and embrace nuclear. Perhaps we can name one of the plants, the Leonard Rodberg Nuclear Facility. Or maybe convince folks to refer to the name of the control rod assembly as a “rodberg” – a large floating mass of control rods?
Californians should really form action groups to combat this greenie pipedream. I was told that the residents of Atlanta, a beautiful pollution-free city, pay 9 cents per kilowatt hour. My PG&E bill averages $.50/kWh. We now have a lame politician who wants to import more expensive carbon-free energy from out of state. The viable solution is building more nuclear plants, reopen and upgrading the SCE and SMUD units. Cancel all of the overpriced and subsidized solar and wind contracts as well.
It may have escaped the woke news, but the much heralded Ivanpah thermal solar plant in the desert, which like Solyndra, was financed by Obama's green deal cronies, was recently shut down after only 15 years. $2.2 Billion of ratepayer and taxpayer money down the drain. Its peak capacity, which it never attained, was almost 400 mega watts. Just one unit of PG&E's Diablo Canyon cranks out 1100 mega watts, 24/7, rain or shine. For once, Californians need to stand up to this lunacy and be forced to pay for these pet projects of pandering politicians. Yes, we can and we should.
I understand that there is a garage sale on solar mirrors, first come, first serve, for 173,500 units.
Mr. Rodberg deserves much credit for is research documenting what our future energy needs will require. Nuclear fission power is the only way to produce sufficient power to tide us over until we have clean fusion nuclear power. Solar and wind will have a place but can never come close to meeting our future needs without nuclear power.
Nothing is ever going to change. The energy policies here in the USA are not about making anything more efficient. Its about control of movement and by proxy control of growth - because they can fleece the people with Draconian energy rates by having a monopoly over the industry and its "regulations". There is technology out there for unlimited energy - Nikola Tesla was not fiction - they just killed him and suppressed his works. We have things like CERN that can rip holes in the space time continuum - look into the past and future - and quantum compute things betwen dimensions - and we are to believe there is no technology for something as simple as unlimited electricity? All sides of the Energy Debate are giant grifts - the green side as well as the oil side - one side uses the false altruism of the "Climate Change" hoax to steal money/land and our rights to liberty - and the other side uses the specter of lowering prices that ultimately never come into fruition because of something "the other side" does or blaming some contrived international conflict which is essentially a different side of the same coin. Our government is run like a Corporation - not a Democratic Republic. The only people who don't admit this inconvenient truth are those that benefit from the grift in one way or another.
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