Why hosting a July Fourth pool party may cost less this year

The finding from the firm's seasonal snapshot comports with broader economic measures indicating that U.S. consumers so far have not seen major impacts from President Donald Trump's vigorous application of tariffs on foreign goods.

Feeding those pool party guests may cost more, however. Wells Fargo's Agri-Food Institute estimates that consumers will pay $130, or 2.2% more than last year, for enough food and beverages to feed 10 people at a classic July 4 cookout.

Numerator, which tracks U.S. retail prices through sales receipts, online account activity and other information from a panel of 200,000 shoppers, did not include food in its analysis for the AP. To see how prices are shaping up for the summer, the company looked at the average purchase price for 16 seasonal items typically made in China.

Along with four towels, a cooler and bathing suits for two adults and a toddler, the hypothetical shopping list for a poolside gathering included a grill, four patio chairs, four cushions, a patio umbrella and four outdoor pillows. Recreation supplies included a cornhole set, two pairs of swim goggles, a set of diving rings, two beach balls and two pool floats or noodles.

Leo Feler, Numerator's chief economist, offered a few theories for why buying all that stuff cost 11% less last month than it did in June 2023, when the average cost reached a high of $966, and 8.4% less than it did in June 2024.

Wholesale suppliers and retailers that order from Chinese manufacturers may have imported too much stock while trying to stay ahead of high tariff bills, Feler said. As declining consumer confidence measures pointed to the possibility of weak sales, those businesses might have offered early discounts rather than risking their merchandise going unsold, he said.

Given wide swings in Trump's trade posture toward China, retail vendors may have decided to absorb any initial tariff costs instead of trying to figure out how much more to charge their business customers, Feler said. The tariff rate on Chinese products soared to 145% in April before China and the U.S. reached a deal last month that brought the overall rate down to 55%.

Suppliers often work on six-month contracts that are signed in January or February and again in June or July. That means many contracts for patio tables and chairs, for example, were signed before the White House included metal furniture in the aluminum or steel products that would be subject to a 25% tariff that went up to 50% last month.

Customers who want to buy a new set of beach towels or to replace an old cooler still might want to hold off until August since prices will get lower in late summer, Feler said. But waiting until next year may prove costly, if the tariffs on products from China remain in place, he said.

Just because outfitting a backyard for a pool party might be comparatively less expensive right now, many economists and retail industry analysts still expect consumers to feel the weight of Trump's favorite trade negotiation tool. Shoppers are likely to see higher prices for back-to-school items starting in July and August, according to Feler.

The time it's taking for the extra taxes on imports to reach stores could turn out like the pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions that contributed to U.S. inflation in 2021 and 2022.

"It wasn't like there was a sudden surge," Feler said. "It was a few prices increased here, then a few more prices, and a few other prices, and a couple more prices. And it started gaining speed."

Food prices tend to be more volatile than the prices of other retail goods. The cost of beef is up 7.4% over last year due to limited supplies of cattle, but chicken prices are up just 1%, Wells Fargo said. Cherry tomato prices are up 3.7% as the Trump administration prepares to put a tariff on Mexican tomato imports later this month. But prices for watermelon and strawberries are down.

Datasembly, a price tracking firm, said a 12-pack of soda will cost 8.85% more this year. Tariffs on imported aluminum have raised the price of cans. Wells Fargo suggested consumers opt for a 2-liter bottle of soda instead, which costs 2% more than last year.