Bay Area health officers declared the region’s stay-at-home order will remain in place through May, but some restrictions will be loosened on unspecified low-risk activities.

A joint statement from health officials in San Mateo, Santa Clara, San Francisco, Marin, Alameda and Contra Costa counties indicated most of the existing mandate will remain in place for the coming month.

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(8) comments

Reader23

only 1000+ cases in a county close to a million resident....that less than .0001% ....I guess the old saying holds true..Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.

MichaelHNachtigall

I think your math is not correct. Try again. I get 0.16%. However, a more realistic way of looking at the number of coronavirus carries in the adult county population would be about 1to 2 per 100 people. You have the right to the pursuit of happiness; I read a news article that stated you have the right to the pursuit of coronavirus infection!

Be careful, be safe, be patient!

MichaelHNachtigall

I also made a graph of the number of tests and positives by hand on graph paper, but then the Health Department made that available on smchealth.com. Well, you can take the positives for the last 14 days and multiply them by ten and you will have a good estimate of the number of people wandering around with the virus. The graphs are very good but I would like to see a 21 day moving average or better yet a 21 day weighted moving average to see the trend direction.

Contact tracing is the only way to significantly reduce the number of infections over the near future. Yo

MichaelHNachtigall

I got booted out. To continue: You, my daughter, and administrators confuse isolation, contact tracing and quarantine. Isolation is the separation of infected persons from those not infected for the period of communicability say (21 days for this coronavirus). Quarantine is the limitation of freedom of apparently well persons or animals who have been exposed to a case of infectious disease. So any person testing positive for the virus would be isolated and close contacts (found by contact tracing) would be quarantined. This process could have been started easily early in March when the communicable disease investigators could have contacted the few cases then. It'been done for a long time with other diseases (tuberculosis, STDs, enteric infections, viral infections, etc. Gov. Newsom rattled them all off a few days ago. They are listed in Title 17 Cal. Health Code. And you don't need thousands of people to do contact tracing. San Mateo County only has between 20 to 30 positives per day and if you don't have enough people hire some more (there are many available).

I am very disappointed in the Health Department because I suggested this process in the middle of March and they blew me off with half truths and half lies. Oh, by the way I

MichaelHNachtigall

Correction the date should be those before April 7, 2020 are not infectious any more.

BobbyB

When are we going to have testing for the public without restrictions? The pubic has waited long enough and the governor is holding out because they do not have the proper supplies, facilities, and man/women is work. This is a poor situation and not being prepared as they try to say they are. Good Luck until next year.

MichaelHNachtigall

When are the county administrators going to take more responsibility to run an effective prevention program? Is the Health Department really doing all those tests, or are they done by the State Department of Health, or contracted out? According to this article, county manager Callagy "the county has the capacity to do more testing" but they don't have enough clients. Change the requirements to get a test, instead of needing two symptoms give it to anyone who has an upper respiratory infection with symptoms of sneezing, coughing, fever, sore throat, fatigue, trouble breathing or contact to someone with the coronavirus infection.

Also, the county can do much better with patient isolation, contact tracing and quarantine close contacts.

Doing testing on the public without restrictions is not a good idea for prevention. Even though there have been about 12000 tests and 1080 confirmed cases that is not meaningful. Only the last 21 days are significant because those before 21 days ago, say April 21, 2020 are not infectious any more; only about 364 of those are still infectious: however, you can probably estimate that between 4000 to 10000 people in the county are carrying the virus symptomatically and ??? asymptomatically.

(Check Dr. Scott Morrows predictions/projections). So no sarcastic good luck; like they say create your own good luck. I prefer to say, the time is always right to do the right thing and for the right reason.

Statecraftsman

It would be great if we could get down to a contact-traceable infected population but there's also the issue of travel. On a daily basis, many essential workers go from one county to another and enough to be concerned about are going between the six bay area counties and those outside. Contact tracing and isolation only make sense if you have a small incidence of reintroduction. If the bay area counties are going want to go forward with contact tracing then sorry to say, there need to be checkpoints and self-quarantine practices for folks coming in. I think the checkpoint + self-quarantine duo will be applied on a state level. California has the agriculture checkpoints that can be repurposed for this and once stood up, I believe we as a state can get a handle on getting the numbers low enough to re-open. One step at a time.

You ask good questions though. I stopped tracking the numbers in a spreadsheet when I realized that they don't reflect reality enough to get any new information out of them.

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