La Niña brings more worries amid drought

“Where Northern California is, it’s kind of in an awkward spot for La Niña,” National Weather Service meteorologist Anna Schneider said. “It can kind of go either way. It’s difficult to tell but there’s equal chances of above and below normal precipitation.”

Currently, the Climate Prediction Center has a La Niña watch, and La Niña is favored to carry through the winter, Schneider said. But even in the event of above average rain, an amount required to get out of the current drought is very unlikely, she said.

The majority of the state, 88% including San Mateo County, is in an “extreme drought” which entails a year-round fire season and the potential for fires to occur in typically wet areas, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System. 

The drought is already “up there with some of the worse ones,” Schneider said. 

Rainfall is commonly measured in the 12-month period from July 1 to June 30. The most recent period was the driest in recorded history — which includes 126 seasons dating back to 1895, according to data compiled by Jan Null, a forecaster who runs Golden Gate Weather Services.

The San Francisco Bay hydrologic region, which includes San Mateo County, had the lowest percentage of rainfall out of normal levels for the state, at 39% for the most recent period. Statewide, rainfall was 49% of normal. The two most recent years combined accounted for 60% of normal rainfall for a two-year period, the second driest two-year period on record, according to the data.

“At the very least we don’t want another well below normal season. That would put us in a pretty bad situation,” Schneider said.

Prolonged and worsened fire seasons sparked by drought are partially the result of dried-out “fuel” for wildfires, which includes water-deprived vegetation, grasses and trees. The recent Dixie Fire burned nearly 1 million acres, making it the second largest fire in the state’s recorded history, topped only by the August Complex Fire, which burned more than 1 million acres last year. 

Prior to the current drought, a statewide drought lasted from approximately 2012 to 2016, hitting its peak in 2014.

As for upcoming weather, Schneider said the region could see some rain in the next 10 to 14 days, but nothing significant. 

“We’re still in the peak of fire season. That’s not quite over for us,” she noted.

San Mateo County is one of 50 counties in the state currently under a drought state of emergency. 

corey@smdailyjournal.com

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