U.S. meteorologists say an El Nino has formed. That's the natural warming of parts of the Pacific that changes weather around the globe. It is likely to a major factor in extreme and deadly weather across the planet for the next year or so. The one announced Thursday is expected to rival the record and costly 1997-98 El Nino. It is usually strongest in the wintertime, and it makes it incredibly likely that 2027 will set a record for the hottest year globally. The United Nations secretary-general says El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
A new report from the United Nations weather agency gives a three-out-of-four chance that the next five years will average more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures. That's the international safety limit set in 2015. There's an even higher chance — 86% — that one of the next five years will smash the global heat record set in 2024 and next year looks like a leading contender. So expect more extreme weather. The next five winters in the Arctic are predicted to be nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the last five years. Meteorologists also forecast an Amazon drought that may spark wildfires.
Wildfires are intensifying across the southeastern U.S. They've destroyed about 50 homes in Georgia. The fires also have forced evacuations. Some of the biggest blazes are along Georgia's coast and around Jacksonville, Florida. Drought and strong winds are fueling the fires. Georgia's two largest wildfires have burned over 31 square miles. In Brantley County, more evacuations were ordered Wednesday on top of 800 evacuations that had taken place. So far, there have been no major injuries reported. In Florida, firefighters are battling 131 wildfires that have burned 34 square miles. The National Weather Service warns that low humidity and winds will keep the fire danger elevated.
Wildfires used to die down and even stop at night with cooler temperatures and increased humidity. But a study released Friday says climate change is making burning weather more around the clock in North America because night is becoming warmer and drier. Canadian fire scientists say potential burning hours for fires have increased 36% in the last 50 years. California now has about 550 more fire-friendly hours a year than it did in the 1970s. North American summer nights are warming faster than days, evening relief is evaporating for forests and that means the area of land burned is soaring.
Scientists say a record-smashing March heat wave in the U.S. Southwest shows climate change is already driving more dangerous weather extremes. World Weather Attribution said Friday that the heat would have been virtually impossible without human-caused warming. Experts say extremes now hit more often, in odd seasons, and in unusual places. NOAA data shows a much larger share of the country sees extreme conditions than decades ago. An analysis by The Associated Press finds the U.S. breaks far more heat records than in past decades. One former FEMA official said disasters now fall outside old planning models and noted insurers pulling back.
The water in California's mountain snowpack is just shy of average as spring begins, with more snow coming as a winter storm aims for the Sierra Nevada. The statewide snowpack measured 90% of average just ahead of the anticipated April 1 peak. Experts say California also can count on stored water after two years of ample rain and snow. State data shows nearly all state reservoirs above their historic capacity. But Southern California has received far less precipitation than usual, and the U.S. Drought Monitor says most of the southern region is once again in moderate to extreme drought.
The U.N. weather agency is reporting that 2023 was the driest year in more than three decades for the world's rivers, as the record-hot year underpinned the drying up of water flows and contributed to prolonged droughts in many places. The World Meteorological Organization also says glaciers that feed rivers in many countries suffered the largest loss of mass in the last five decades. WMO warned that ice melt can threaten long-term water security for millions of people globally. Its secretary-general says water is the "canary in the coalmine" for climate change — a distress signal for a warming planet.
By JENNIFER SINCO KELLEHER and JULIE WALKER Associated Press
Tropical Storm Hone blasted the Big Island with rain and is swirling past Hawaii's main islands. Hone was a hurricane at its peak but was back to a tropical storm on Monday with top sustained winds of 50mph. Tropical Storm Hector gained strength in the eastern Pacific, but no coastal watches or warnings were in effect as it was still far out at sea. And, Hurricane Gilma was still far east of Hawaii but gained a bit of strength on Monday morning. Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through Tuesday, but is forecast to weaken considerably before it reaches the islands.
