Caltrain is moving ahead with cost-cutting and revenue-growing measures to narrow a gaping deficit, with plans to remove a 13-year-old discount for Clipper card users and potentially schedule further fare increases through 2030.
Despite a surge in ridership as a result of electrification and more frequent service, the rail agency is facing an average $75 million annual shortfall starting 2027 and has repeatedly warned it could cut back on service if significant funding is not secured.
That funding would come from a ballot measure next year, where Bay Area voters will decide whether to approve a 14-year sales tax that would shore up transit operators’ deficits, including Caltrain and BART. The money would prevent service cuts and keep agencies afloat but is not intended as a long-term funding source.
The agency has held back on hiring new full-time employees, explored property leasing opportunities and is even contemplating more flexibility in its pricing structure for charter trains. It also just approved a 25-cent increase on its base fare in July.
Starting Jan. 1, the 55-cent discount Clipper card users have enjoyed since 2012 will also be removed, and the Board of Directors will vote on additional fare increases next month, which would last until at least 2030. The proposal would alternate each year between a 25-cent base fare increase and a 25-cent increase per additional zone traveled.
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Leaders hope the increases won’t negatively affect ridership, which has shown tremendous improvement, a 55% increase, since fully electrified service went into effect last year.
“Revenue growth is primarily driven by ridership growth, not price increases,” Melissa Jones, deputy director of policy development, during a recent board meeting. “Our operating costs are projected to grow approximately 5% per year. Our other revenue sources that are in our operating budget are projected to remain relatively flat, so our main revenue source that has the potential to grow is our fare revenue.”
The board did not unanimously support automatic increases over the proposed four-year span, though board Chair Steve Heminger was supportive, noting it wasn’t uncommon for other agencies to do so.
“My preference would be to have a policy that dictates that we move forward over time with gradually increasing fares to cover increasing costs and that we make it a little bit difficult on ourselves to change that policy in the future,” Heminger said, though, he added he wanted more data on how the changes could impact ridership trends.
The board will vote on the additional increases during its meeting in December.
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