Takaichi's ruling party on path to winning a majority in Japan's lower house vote, exit polls say

NHK, citing results of early vote counts, said the LDP alone secured 244 seats, surpassing a majority at 233.

The huge jump from the pre-election share may allow Takaichi to make progress on a right-wing agenda that aims to boost Japan’s economy and military capabilities as tensions grow with China and she tries to nurture ties with the United States.

Takaichi is hugely popular, but the governing LDP, which has ruled Japan for most of the last seven decades, has struggled with funding and religious scandals in recent years. She called Sunday’s early election only after three months in office, hoping to turn that around while her popularity is high.

A popular leader

The ultraconservative Takaichi, who took office as Japan’s first female leader in October, pledged to “work, work, work,” and her style, which is seen as both playful and tough, has resonated with younger fans.

The opposition, despite the formation of a new centrist alliance and a rising far-right, is seen as too splintered to be a real challenger. The new opposition alliance of LDP’s former coalition partner, Buddhist-backed dovish Komeito, and the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is projected to sink to half of their combined pre-election share of 167 seats.

Takaichi was betting with this election that her LDP party, together with its new partner, the Japan Innovation Party, would secure a majority.

Pushing right-wing policies

Takaichi wants to push forward a significant shift to the right in Japan’s security, immigration and other policies. The LDP's right-wing partner, JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, said his party will serve as an “accelerator” for this push.

Japan has recently seen far-right populists gain ground, such as the anti-globalist and surging nationalist party Sanseito. Exit polls projected a big gain for Sanseito.

Takaichi has pledged to revise security and defense policies by December to bolster Japan’s offensive military capabilities, lifting a ban on weapons exports and moving further away from the country’s postwar pacifist principles.

She has been pushing for tougher policies on foreigners, anti-espionage and other measures that resonate with a far-right audience, but ones that experts say could undermine civil rights.

Takaichi also wants to increase defense spending in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure for Japan to loosen its purse strings.

Divisive policies

Though Takaichi said that she's seeking to win support for policies seen as divisive in Japan, she largely avoided discussing ways to fund soaring military spending, how to fix diplomatic tension with China and other issues.

In her campaign speeches, Takaichi enthusiastically talked about the need for proactive government spending to fund “crisis management investment and growth,” such as measures to strengthen economic security, technology and other industries. Takaichi also seeks to push tougher measures on immigration, including stricter requirements for foreign property owners and a cap on foreign residents.

Sunday's election “underscores a problematic trend in Japanese politics in which political survival takes priority over substantive policy outcomes,” said Masato Kamikubo, a Ritsumeikan University politics professor. “Whenever the government attempts necessary but unpopular reforms ... the next election looms.”

Impact of snow and younger voters

Sunday’s vote coincided with fresh snowfall across the country, including in Tokyo. Record snowfall in northern Japan over the past few weeks blocked roads and was blamed for dozens of deaths nationwide.

Kazuki Ishihara, 54, said that she voted for the LDP for stability and in hopes for something new under Takaichi.

“I have some hope that she could do something” her predecessors could not, Ishihara said.

Video journalist Mayuko Ono in Tokyo contributed to this report.