Republicans try to flip an Iowa Senate seat and reclaim a supermajority in year-end special election

Flipping the seat would give Republicans supermajority status once again, just months after a Democrat flipped a Republican seat in an August special election, giving Democrats 17 seats to Republicans' 33. Celsi's death left the Democratic caucus at 16.

Senate Republicans left Des Moines last spring with a supermajority, which allows the party to easily confirm Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds’ appointments to state agencies and commissions. A Hardman win in Tuesday's election would limit Republicans’ power in the Senate as lawmakers prepare to return to Des Moines for the 2026 legislative session. Without a supermajority, Republicans would have to rely on support from at least one Democrat to approve Reynolds' nominees.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by about 3,300 voters, 37% to 30%, but a holiday week special election may prove more volatile.

About a third of registered voters in the district are affiliated with another party or register without a political party.

Celsi won her 2024 reelection bid against a Libertarian competitor with 69% of the district electorate. But she earned a smaller majority of voters in 2022 — 58% — against a Republican, who earned 42% of the vote. That was similar to the share Republican President Donald Trump received in the district last year.

Hardman, who would be the first Black woman elected to the Iowa state Senate, is the CEO of nonprofit Lutheran Services of Iowa and a member of the West Des Moines City Council. Loftin, who started as a tree trimmer for Wright Service Corp. in 2007, has since transitioned to software and data project management for the environmental services company.

Schoenbaum reported from Salt Lake City.