Millbrae School District faces funding woes

After surveying likely voters and conducting more than 250 interviews in early to mid-July, Godbe said the most recent data indicates that voters could be supportive of a new bond or parcel tax measure this November but success would be a close.

A bond measure would need 55% of the vote to pass and a parcel tax measure would need at least 66% of the vote. Respondents shared strong support when asked about whether they believed in funding various district initiatives but the data ultimately shows only about 52% support a new bond measure and about 64% support the parcel tax, Godbe said, noting that the results have a 6% margin of error.

The district’s most recent bond measure, Measure E, faced a similar fate in June. Though it was initially projected to pass, Measure E was the only school district ballot measure in the county to not be approved, falling short of the 55% threshold by about 1.5%.

Officials had previously held off on putting the measure on the 2020 November ballot out of concern the pandemic would lead to low turnout and then were unable to persuade county election officials to allow the measure to be placed on the recall ballot in 2021 when turnout was high.

Had the bond measure been approved, it would have helped cover the $118 million worth of projects identified in the district’s Facilities Master Plan with special focus placed on upgrading Lomita Park Elementary. Alternatively, a parcel tax measure would help cover programming but is largely used for supporting personnel costs, Superintendent Debbie French said.

Barry Barnes, a campaign consultant working with the school district on its bond measures, said bonds are often a harder sell than parcel tax measures because projects covered by bonds can often take years to complete, potentially outliving the time a student is at the campus. Meanwhile, parcel tax dollars have more immediate uses and cover things that matter most to parents — salaries to keep high quality staff on hand and funds to keep important programs running.

Economic concerns caused by high gas prices, inflation and an anticipated recession are also partly to blame for the measure not passing and continued projected instability has stunted any hopes for a measure passing in November. About 46% of respondents shared concerns that conditions will only get worse, Godbe said, who noted the response “seems unbelievably pessimistic” but he’s seen worse rates as high as 56%.

Similar concerns and low polling support drove San Mateo County officials to pause their pursuit of a tax measure that would have helped fund climate mitigation initiatives including addressing sea level rise and wildfire risks, Barnes said.

“Voters are just in a cranky mood and we saw the front end of that in June. Unfortunately, the bond was the victim of that,” Barnes said.

Like Godbe, Barnes also advised against placing a measure on the November ballot. It’s unclear whether economic conditions will improve any time soon but Barnes argued another loss could be “really deflating” for the district as officials consider holding a special election in which voters would be asked to extend an existing parcel tax measure that’s set to expire by the end of June.

That question could come before voters through mail-only ballots between March and May. Godbe said survey responses indicate even that request is not favorable with the voters at this time. In turn, Barnes recommend officials focus on reengaging with parents and the broader school community who could have greater sway during a special election depending on turnout.

“I think that it’s going to be challenging and I can’t wave a crystal ball and say the economy and gas prices and everything are going to be fantastic in 2023, but, I do think it gives us an opportunity, especially by now going to the center and asking parents … what is it that gets them most excited about the parcel tax,” Barnes said.

Trustee agreed that getting the right message out into the school community early in the school year when parents are most engaged is vital. Without the extended parcel tax, the board shared concerns the district would face serious hurdles when trying to maintain programming and staffing levels.

“Our message should be, we’re already in deficit spending. If this parcel tax doesn’t pass, there will be cuts,” Trustee Maggie Musa said. “There will be cuts and there will be less money in the budget for programs that parents and teachers desire to have.”

An updated survey will be done by Godbe in December or early January to gauge whether community support has shifted. Trustee Karen Chin shared similar urgency while advocating for quickly establishing a campaign committee who would be more free to advocate for a parcel tax measure than district officials.

“To me it feels like we have no choice but to run a parcel tax sometime this [school] year unless we’re willing to let it laps and run for a brand new one, which we all know is going to be really tough,” Chin said. “It’s just a matter of how do we proceed now to get the team in place to get this on the ballot as late as we can and go for it?”

sierra@smdailyjournal.com

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