Leaders scoping options to fund transit agencies

Caltrain’s fare revenue more than halved between 2019 and 2023, and its postpandemic recovery levels are even lower than BART’s, according to recent estimates. Caltrain’s ridership is about 35% of its 2019 level, compared with about 44% for BART.

“If we don’t find a solution, there is going to be one hell of a fallout in this region,” James Spering, chair of MTC’s Transportation Revenue Measure Select Committee, said. 

One option, discussed last month, would raise $540 million over 30 years via a half-cent sales tax and involve San Mateo, San Francisco, Alameda and Contra Costa counties — though other counties could opt in if they choose. About 90% of the funds would go to some of the largest operators like BART and Caltrain for the first eight years.

The second choice would be a nine-county regional measure, generating $1.5 billion through a parcel or payroll tax, with more funding going immediately to each county to use as they see fit.

During the Oct. 21 meeting, staff also added another option, which would be a similar version to the first choice but instead of the 30-year timeline, it would expire at the end of 10 years, which is also around when several counties’ sales tax measures expire. 

But committee members have struggled to find strong consensus on the type of tax, timeline or even which counties to include. 

Most showed support for a four-county measure, rather than a broader Bay Area initiative, with Gina Papan, MTC commissioner and Millbrae councilmember, saying that keeping it small will be more palatable for her San Mateo County constituents. She also noted that a 10-year measure would be more likely to pass.

“I’m not sure that 30 years is sellable to the public, particularly in my jurisdiction. Yes, we want to be helpful, but it’s a little underbaked at this point,” Papan said. 

Conversely, others, like committee member Adina Levin, have said that if the measure is too small, the lower funding levels may still not address transit operators’ needs and could still potentially result in service disruptions. 

“If voters have to tax themselves with something that’s going to wind up with service cuts and less coordination, that’s going to be harder to pass than something that improves the system,” Levin said. 

During the subcommittee meeting, most members also showed support for a sales tax, rather than a parcel or payroll tax. Papan said her jurisdiction “has 20 cities all with different parcel taxes,” which would muddy the chances of success. 

Polls indicating levels of support for the various aspects of a potential measure were postponed until after the upcoming election. But several members, including David Canepa, MTC commissioner and San Mateo County supervisor, raised the lack of data as a concern, given most of the opinions and decisions by committee members and board members might be conjecture. 

Public comments varied, with some transit advocates stating they prefer a larger, nine-county measure, as the four-county option does not fully address the needs of all regional transit agencies, including MUNI and AC Transit. Others, including some from various local unions, said they were not in support of any current options and preferred to see more investment in repairing current road infrastructure. 

The MTC Board of Directors will discuss the measure at a future meeting. A finalized measure will need to be completed by the end of the year, as it must be introduced to the state Legislature in early 2025 to be included in the 2026 ballot.