Iran and the US lean into gunboat diplomacy as nuclear talks hang in balance

The movements of additional American warships and airplanes don't guarantee a U.S. strike on Iran — but it does give President Donald Trump the ability to carry out one should he choose to do so.

He has so far held off on striking Iran after setting red lines over the killing of peaceful protesters and the Iranian authorities' mass executions, while reengaging Tehran in nuclear talks that were earlier disrupted by the Iran-Israel war in June.

Iran has asked for a two weeks' pause before any new talks over its nuclear program with the U.S. after this week's round in Geneva.

“Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website, seeking also to pressure the United Kingdom over its plans to settle the future of the Chagos Islands with Mauritius. Fairford is an airfield in England used the by the U.S. Air Force.

There's growing international concern about a possible military confrontation, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urging his nation's citizens to immediately leave Iran as “within a few, a dozen, or even a few dozen hours, the possibility of evacuation will be out of the question.” He did not elaborate and the Polish Embassy in Tehran did not appear to be drawing down its staff.

“This week, another 50 U.S. combat aircraft — F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s — were ordered to the region, supplementing the hundreds deployed to bases in the Arab Gulf states,” the New York-based Soufan Center think tank wrote. “The deployments reinforce Trump’s threat — restated on a nearly daily basis — to proceed with a major air and missile campaign on the regime if talks fail.”

Meanwhile, Iran struggles with unrest at home following its crackdown on protests, with mourners now holding ceremonies honoring their dead 40 days after their killing by security forces. Some of the gatherings have included anti-government cries, despite threats from authorities.

Iran holds drill with Russia

The drill Thursday saw Iranian forces and Russian sailors conduct operations in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported. The drill will be aimed at “upgrading operational coordination as well as exchange of military experiences," IRNA added.

Footage later released by Iran showed members of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard's Sepah Navy Special Force board a vessel in the exercise in a scenario where it had been taken over. The SNSF is believed to have been used in the past to seize vessels, including the tanker MSC Aries in the Strait of Hormuz in April 2024.

China had joined the “Security Belt” drill in previous years, but there was no acknowledgment it participated in this round. In recent days, a vessel that appeared to be a Steregushchiy-class Russian corvette had been seen at a military port in the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas.

Iran also issued a rocket-fire warning to pilots in the region, suggesting they planned to launch anti-ship missiles in the exercise.

Meanwhile, tracking data showed the Ford off the coast of Morocco in the Atlantic Ocean midday Wednesday, meaning the carrier could transit through Gibraltar and potentially station in the eastern Mediterranean with its supporting guided-missile destroyers.

Having the carrier there could allow American forces to have extra aircraft and anti-missile power to potentially protect Israel and Jordan should a conflict break out with Iran. The U.S. similarly placed warships there during the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip to protect against Iranian fire.

Israel is preparing for possible Iranian missile strikes in response to any U.S. action. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu long has pushed for tougher U.S. action against Iran and says any deal should not only end its nuclear program but curb its missile arsenal and force it to cut ties with militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Iran has said the current talks should only focus on its nuclear program, which the U.S. bombed back in June. Iran says it hasn't been enriching uranium since, though Tehran still blocks international inspectors from visiting the sites.

Anti-government chants made at mourning ceremonies

Mourning ceremonies for those killed by security forces in the protests last month also have increased. Iranians traditionally mark the death of a loved one 40 days after the loss. Both witnesses and social media videos showed memorials taking place at Tehran's massive Behesht-e Zahra cemetery. Some memorials included people chanting against Iran's theocracy while singing nationalistic songs.

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 at Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar, initially over the collapse of Iran’s currency, the rial, then spread across the country. Tensions exploded on Jan. 8, with demonstrations called for by Iran’s exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi.

Iran's government has offered only one death toll for the violence, with 3,117 people killed. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in previous rounds of unrest in Iran, puts the death toll at over 7,000 killed, with many more feared dead.

Meanwhile, the Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights warned Thursday that at least 26 people detained over the protests have received death sentences. It fears others may receive similar sentences — which also have been a red line for Trump.

Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, and Claudia Ciobanu in Warsaw, Poland, contributed to this report.