Takeaways from the first elections of the 2026 campaign

For all the focus on Texas, elections in North Carolina could have a bigger impact on which party ultimately wins the Senate majority in the fall.

In the first election since President Donald Trump joined Israel in launching dramatic attacks on Iran, there were also contests in Arkansas.

Here are some takeaways:

A critical Senate race takes shape

One of this year’s marquee Senate contests is set.

Democrat Roy Cooper will face Republican Michael Whatley in a race that’s critical to deciding control of the Senate in November.

Both parties have reason to feel confident about their chances in the general election.

For Democrats, Cooper is an ideal candidate in one of the most politically competitive states. A former two-term governor, he’s proven he can win statewide elections.

Republicans, meanwhile, are going into the campaign with a candidate who is backed by Trump, an endorsement that could make the difference energizing voters during an otherwise challenging year for the GOP. And as the former chair of the Republican National Committee, Whatley is familiar with party resources and how they can be deployed during a tough campaign.

Still, both candidates must overcome notable challenges. While Democrats like Cooper have been successful in races for governor, they’ve struggled in Senate contests. Kay Hagan was the last Democrat to win a Senate race in North Carolina — way back in 2008.

And while Trump’s endorsement will help Whatley turn out the GOP base, it will do little to help him make inroads with moderate or independent voters who could make the difference.

Just as a refresher, Trump is the reason this is an open Senate contest in the first place. His disagreements with the incumbent Republican, Thom Tillis, prompted the two-term senator to decide against reelection.

Get ready for what could be a messy race to November — one where spending could hit $1 billion.

The election isn’t over for Republicans in Texas

Cornyn and Paxton will keep fighting for the GOP nomination through a May 26 runoff.

For Cornyn, the results keep his hopes of remaining in the Senate alive. But it’s still something of an embarrassment that the four-term senator couldn’t win the race outright.

And it’s a reminder of how, a decade into his political career, Trump continues to roil the GOP. Though Cornyn has expressed occasional skepticism of Trump, he has been a reliable ally to the president. Paxton, however, claimed he was more aligned with Trump’s Make America Great Again movement, effectively splitting support that may have otherwise gone to Cornyn.

Trump didn’t endorse either candidate during the primary, but the results may raise pressure on him to take a side. Republicans in Washington have expressed concern that Paxton, who has well-documented political baggage, may be a weaker candidate in the general election.

Regardless of what happens, expect more cash to be pumped into the race. Cornyn and well-funded allied groups spent at least $64 million in television advertising alone since July.

While the race goes on, one person will be missing: Wesley Hunt. The congressman was a late entry into what had been a head-on contest between Cornyn and Paxton. His presence in the race further divided Republicans, making the runoff harder to avoid.

The first elections of the year weren’t entirely smooth sailing

In two major Texas counties — Dallas and Williamson — there was significant confusion over where voters could cast their ballot. For years, they could vote anywhere in the county. But for this primary, the local Republican parties opted against countywide voting.

With state law mandating that both parties have to agree to use the countywide system, voters could only vote at their assigned precinct — forcing many to figure out where exactly that was.

Things quickly turned messy, with lawsuits, changes to voting hours and Democrats calling foul. Crockett called the rule change an “effort to suppress the vote.” Talarico’s campaign said it was “deeply concerned.”

Political parties run their own primaries in Texas, meaning a repeat of Tuesday’s confusion is unlikely to repeat in November.

But this isn’t happening in a vacuum. Texas is central to Trump’s redistricting effort to protect the GOP’s narrow majority in the House. The president has spoken of the need to “nationalize” elections.

Republicans in Congress have pushed legislation that would impose strict new proof-of-citizenship requirements. The bill is a long shot in the Senate but serves as another reminder of GOP efforts to change election rules heading into November.