Public weighs in on Caltrain’s growth vision

Caltrain’s joint powers board will select one of those growth scenarios in October.

The baseline scenario entails changes that are already in the works, including increased service from five trains per peak hour to six trains per peak hour in each direction once electrification is complete in 2022. In that scenario, daily riders will grow from 60,000 to 161,000 and travel time between San Francisco and San Jose would be between 69 minutes and 73 minutes. 

The “moderate-growth” scenario would see eight trains per peak hour in each direction and 177,200 daily riders while the “high growth” scenario includes 12 trains per peak hour in both directions to serve 207,300 daily riders. In both of those scenarios, it would take express trains one hour to travel between San Francisco and San Jose. 

“[The high-growth scenario] really maxes out what can be done on the existing corridor without a complete rebuild,” said Director of Policy Development Sebastian Petty.

Each of the three scenarios also assume four California high-speed rail trains per peak hour and three high-speed rail trains per off-peak hours.  

The longest wait times at major stations served by all trains would be 22 minutes under the baseline scenario, 12 minutes under the moderate growth one and eight minutes with high-growth.

Petty said trains would be “very crowded” and uncomfortable in the baseline scenario, the moderate one would see crowding on some trains during peak hours and the high-growth scenario would offer comfortable rides.

He also said service would be irregular and therefore challenging to coordinate with other trains and buses under the baseline scenario, while both the moderate- and high-growth scenarios offer “very structured service patterns.”

“[Under moderate- and high-growth] you’d have a train arriving and departing at a very predictable intervals and that’s a big change Caltrain can make to make it easier for other trains to connect for a high-quality transfer,” he said.

But several speakers, while supportive of the Business Plan overall, said it insufficiently addresses Caltrain’s connection to other transit systems. 

“Caltrain cannot be seen in isolation from the regional network,” said Ian Griffiths, representing grassroots group Seamless Bay Area. “The public expects an intermodal system where buses, express buses, local buses, regional trains and BART and metro all work together as an integrated system and that’s lacking from both the staff recommendation and the vision.” 

The baseline scenario will cost $22.1 billion to realize, including $2.3 billion worth of projects that are already underway, while the moderate scenario requires a $25.3 billion investment and the high-growth scenario costs $30 billion. All of those numbers are in 2018 dollars.

Caltrain staff are recommending the “moderate growth” scenario with elements of the “high-growth” one. 

“The recommendation is Caltrain itself being directly focused on achieving what we’ve been describing as the moderate growth, but also doing a number of things to continue to plan for the high-growth and work with our regional partners on that,” Petty said. “We shouldn’t be losing sight of the highest possible growth for the rail system.” 

Several speakers endorsed the staff recommendation, but many more called for the high-growth option to meet the region’s future needs. 

“Be bold and visionary and support the high-growth scenario. … That’s what the community wants and needs,” said Gail Price, a former Palo Alto councilwoman.

“Anything less will be mediocre and inadequate to meet the well-documented current and future transportation and transit needs. The projected job and population growth and economic situation in the region is critical and this key corridor will make all the difference.” 

Adina Levin of Friends of Caltrain said using “aim high” policy language will help secure funding for the vision.

“It might not be possible to commit to everything in ‘high’ — it’s not funded and might not even be feasible — but setting policy language that is aim high would help substantively,” she said. “The ‘moderate but not to preclude high growth’ is accurate, but it’s not inspiring. Having language about the goal being as high as possible growth will help to bring our regional partners to get the funding for it and will help everyone in terms of surmounting the challenges that are ahead.” 

One of those challenges is funding the ambitious plan, especially considering the railroad’s ongoing structural deficit and lack of a dedicated funding source.

“Without more dollars [Caltrain] cannot sustain its current operations nor embrace the service vision of the future. It’s a simple fact,” said Caltrain CEO Jim Hartnett. “A dedicated source of tax revenue can sustain our current services and lay the foundation for the future. It can be transformative.”

zachary@smdailyjournal.com

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