Impact of Roe on the election

Four years ago, the November turnout was almost 77%, more than 28 points ahead of the June primary. This led to widespread conviction that this year’s general election turnout would be notably lower than the 2018 turnout.

But now there is a growing expectation that November voting (which begins in early October) could be quite high, driven up by the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the anger that decision has engendered, an associated activism and a measure that would amend the California Constitution to establish reproductive freedom as a guaranteed right.

Here is the language of the proposed amendment:

“The state shall not deny or interfere with an individual’s reproductive freedom in their most intimate decisions, which includes their fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives. This section is intended to further the constitutional right to privacy guaranteed by Section 1, and the constitutional right to not be denied equal protection guaranteed by Section 7. Nothing herein narrows or limits the right to privacy or equal protection.”

Over decades of interviewing political consultants who specialize in increasing the number of women officeholders, they all say that there is no such thing as a “women’s vote” — that women do not vote as a bloc.

But there is some thinking that the Roe decision may be the exceptional moment that propels women to the polls this November to pass the amendment by the kind of overwhelming margin that will make a statement to the rest of the country.

There also is some curiosity among political insiders whether the post-Roe environment will draw younger, more progressive voters to the November election.

That could affect at least two local elections for seats on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, in which Laura Parmer-Lohan and Noelia Corzo are running against Ray Mueller and Charles Stone, respectively.

At stake, among many other things, of course, is whether the board will be without a female member since 1980, when Jackie Speier upset 20-year incumbent James Fitzgerald by a few hundred votes.

In the precision of the cliché, all of this remains to be seen. But, at least for now, it looks like the Roe decision could be a catalyst for an energetic November election.

EATING CROW: Or, more precisely, cake. In a preelection column, I wrote that if challenger Christina Corpus defeated incumbent Sheriff Carlos Bolanos by more than 10 points I would “eat this column.” She won by, ahem, 13.8 points.

On Tuesday, I ate it. I had the column, complete with my mug shot, made into the topping on a luscious 9-inch butter chocolate cake from Copenhagen Bakery in Burlingame. Then, with the help of my friends at Rainbow Pizza in San Mateo, I hosted a get-together with Corpus and a few of her supporters. There, they enjoyed watching me eat my words.

They recorded and photographed the moment.

No doubt, some of you are disappointed that the meal was something less than shredded newsprint sprinkled with a piquant sriracha or habanero sauce. I am certain my words were tastier on Tuesday than they have been for others. But I felt this was a fun way to keep my own campaign promise.

Corpus was very gracious, particularly in resisting the temptation to gouge out my eyes. On the cake, that is.

In fact, she has been a pleasure to get to know during the course of the campaign.

In an informal conversation, Corpus discussed her efforts to prepare to take office on Jan. 2 and the myriad issues she will face in an office that has been a closely held environment.

In recent columns, I took note of the circumstances that seemed to help her defeat an incumbent. This happens so rarely in San Mateo County’s most prominent offices that it may have been 34 years since the last time, when Democrat Ted Lempert (son of renowned column colleague Sue Lempert) defeated one-term Republican Assemblyman Bill Duplissea.

None of that was intended to give short shrift to the Corpus campaign and its message: “A Sheriff You Can Trust.” Clearly, it struck the right chord with voters.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.