Erdogan's warm ties with Trump offer Turkey an edge ahead of NATO summit

Leveraging that respect has helped Erdogan avoid the disarray that the U.S. president’s absence would cause the alliance, particularly at a time when Trump has been repeatedly threatening to pull U.S. forces from Europe and scale back America’s role in NATO, unsettling allies. Trump has long rebuked other NATO countries over their defense spending — and claimed last year’s pledge to collectively boost it as a major personal win — while more recently clashing with them for failing to back his war against Iran.

But Trump has sweetened the deal for Erdogan by also hinting that he could make news during his visit related to jet engines and the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets barred for years because of Turkey’s closeness with Moscow.

The Republican president's affinity for strongmen leaders has long made him an admirer of Erdogan, who amassed power in Turkey first as its prime minister and now in his 13th year as president.

“His relationship with Erdogan, which is pretty strong, is consistent with what seems to be a pattern of his preference,” said Philip Gordon, who served as national security adviser for Vice President Kamala Harris. “It has often been pointed out he seems to have better relationships with adversaries and autocrats, and he certainly says nicer things about them than with allies.”

Gordon, now at the Brookings Institution, added, “Erdogan is taking full advantage of it.”

Erdogan snubbed Biden but bets on Trump

Trump — who is expected to have a bilateral meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit — will be the first U.S. president to visit Turkey since Barack Obama in 2015. By contrast, U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration kept Erdogan at arm's length during his four years in office over Turkey’s democratic backsliding and close ties to Russia.

Opposition parties and human rights organizations have accused Erdogan of undermining democracy and curbing freedom of expression. They say baseless investigations and prosecutions of human rights activists, journalists, opposition politicians and others remain a persistent problem in Turkey.

Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute said Erdogan and Trump “clicked” personally during Trump’s first term. When Biden extended an invitation in 2024 for Erdogan to visit the U.S. after Turkey endorsed Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership, Erdogan decided not to go.

“That was Erdogan’s way of signaling to Trump, ‘Hey, you are going to probably win the elections,'” Cagaptay said. “I think Trump saw that as a giant gesture.”

Trump signals steps toward jet sales for Turkey

During a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte last week, a reporter asked Trump whether he was taking “a big gift bag for Erdogan” on the trip, noting that Ankara wants F-110 jet engines and F-35 fighter jets.

“Yeah, I think so,” Trump responded. “Yeah, I’m going to probably do something that’s going to make him very happy.” Trump had also suggested last September that the U.S. could soon start selling F-35s to Turkey.

Turkey was barred from the program in 2019, after it purchased Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems. U.S. officials have feared that Turkey’s use of the Russian system could enable Moscow to gather information on the F-35’s capabilities.

At the Oval Office meeting, Vice President JD Vance said Washington was exploring ways to sell ⁠Turkey the jets, emphasizing that any sale would ensure Turkey has complied with U.S. law. There is significant bipartisan opposition on Capitol Hill to selling the F-35s to Turkey as long as Ankara is in possession of the Russian missile defense systems, including from influential Republicans such as Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch of Idaho.

Meanwhile, the F-110 jet engines that Turkey is seeking to purchase would power its domestically produced KAAN fighter jets. The State Department last week took a step toward making those sales, sending key lawmakers a notice that it planned to bypass congressional opposition to more than $700 million of the jet engine sales to Ankara, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss details of a nonpublic notification.

“In this case, the State Department did not even attempt to justify its decision,” New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement last week. “It did not invoke any emergency authority, did not present a written rationale, and for months refused to make a good-faith effort to brief me on implications of the sale for the U.S.-Turkey relationship, Turkey’s continued possession of the Russian S-400 system, and other regional security concerns.”

The relationship between the U.S. and Turkey is thawing in other ways, too. Earlier this year, the Justice Department dropped a major case against Turkey’s state‑owned Halkbank, which had been accused of helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions.

Erdogan lauds Trump's friendship and phone calls

When he returned to the White House for his second term, Trump appointed a close friend as ambassador to Turkey: Tom Barrack, a longtime ally who also served as the chairman of his inaugural committee. “Barrack is playing a crucial role as a facilitator in the relationship,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Ankara’s TED University.

Erdogan and Trump have frequently held telephone calls to discuss Syria, Gaza and the wider Middle East, and Turkey joined Trump’s Board of Peace aimed at overseeing the ceasefire in Gaza. Trump claimed this month that he asked Erdogan to stay out of the war in Iran and that the Turkish leader complied, though there is no indication that Turkey had ever intended to get involved.

Trump expressed admiration for Erdogan even while standing beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a joint press conference last year. Netanyahu, whose government is at odds with Ankara, had hoped to win Trump’s support for pushing back on Turkish influence in Syria, but instead found himself watching as Trump showered praises on Erdogan and urged Netanyahu to be “reasonable.”

Last year, after meeting with Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague, Erdogan told reporters that the U.S. president is quick to return his calls, an anecdote that illustrated their close ties.

“With my friend Trump, we are opening the door to a new era in Turkish‑American relations,” Erdogan said. “The process of telephone diplomacy between us has never exceeded 24 hours so far. When we call, the other side responds within 24 hours.”

Fraser reported from Ankara.