Arnold finds newfound success

Lately, it looks like he was right.

Beaten, bruised and adrift last year, tanked in the polls and spanked by voters in an embarrassing special election, the one-time Republican superstar appeared ready for a return to Hollywood rather than a second term in the Sacramento statehouse.

But after finding newfound success working with Democrats in the Legislature, executing a tactful step to the political center and keeping his famously flappy lips mostly zipped, Schwarzenegger has established himself as the favorite against Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides in the Nov. 7 election.

With an edge in the polls and fundraising — and a willingness by voters to give him another look — the actor-turned-politician could pull off what political scientist Bruce Cain calls "the most successful rehabilitation in recent California history.”

He’s done it by breaking taboos of textbook politics.

He changed course, broke from his own party and apologized for mistakes.

"Conventional wisdom says you have to be consistent,” said Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. "It’s hard to say Arnold is consistent ... but it’s worked for him.”

Schwarzenegger’s political rebound has been aided by an employment boomlet and an economy that has pumped billions of dollars of unexpected cash into the state treasury, allowing him to lavish funding on education and other voter-friendly programs.

At the same time, the relatively unknown Angelides, who hopes to become a political giant-slayer, has yet to stir widespread excitement among Democrats. A brainy detail guy, something less than charismatic, his job is difficult in a state where politics often takes a back seat to Hollywood.

Allyson Dworkin, 43, a stay-at-home mother from Santa Monica, isn’t what you’d call an Arnold fan. The Democrat voted against Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election, and she doesn’t like his history of off-color remarks about women. Yet she’s open-minded about November and impressed with Schwarzenegger’s green streak on environmental issues.

"He surprised me. I expected a lot of bluster and not much else,” she said, walking with her golden lab Boomer along the beach.

Asked about Angelides, she pauses. Her face pinches.

"I just don’t know a whole lot about him,” she said.

A year ago, the celebrity governor was all threats and partisan bluster, raging against legislators and public employee unions. After voters in November booted his slate of proposals to undercut labor power and give him a tighter grip on spending, he said Californians "are sick and tired of all the fighting.”

It wasn’t hard to figure out he was looking inward.

The fingerpointing stopped this year. Schwarzenegger is big on optimism, cooperation and moderation.

"California is back!” he says.

He’s been all smiles with powerful Democrats such as Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, while keeping far away from an unpopular President Bush. He’s executed turnarounds to boost the minimum wage, establish prescription drug discounts and increase school funding while reaching deals with Democrats on global warming and bond proposals to pay for road building, stronger levees and other public works.

Most Californians feel the state is on the wrong track, polls show. Schwarzenegger’s on-again, off-again praise for the Minutemen civilian border patrols has strained his relations with Hispanics. College, housing and health-care costs have climbed. And Schwarzenegger has a rebellious right in his own party, angered over increased state spending, a lack of progress on illegal immigration and his coziness with Democrats such as his chief of staff, Susan Kennedy, a former aide to the Democratic governor Schwarzenegger replaced in 2003, Gray Davis.

Angelides, 53, a Harvard graduate and multimillionaire Sacramento housing developer, has been trying to tap into voter angst. The latest round of Democratic ads paint Schwarzenegger as a soul mate of President Bush whose true interests are nested with corporations and the wealthy.

"He’s a Bush clone who’s trying to cover it up, hoping to slip back into office,” Angelides said during a campaign stop in Los Angeles.

It’s a critical period for the challenger. His lackluster fundraising could hinder him from buying the expensive TV advertising he needs to reach voters in California’s multiple media markets. Schwarzenegger raised at least $9.2 million since June 30, more than double the amount banked by Angelides.

Without a steady stream of commercials to grab voters’ attention, it’s hard to lift poll numbers. Unless the race looks competitive, donors will be less likely to part with a dollar. Union money could help Angelides close the gap.

Schwarzenegger, 59, says he’s wedded to ideas, not party orthodoxy — a self-described "Arnold Republican.” But his own record leaves him open to questions about his goals and direction.

His campaign this year looks or sounds little like his 2003 blitz, in which he promised to oust special interests and pay-to-play money from the Capitol, only to become a record fundraiser with close ties to business interests.

He backed away from a proposal to privatize much of the state public pension system. He once called the Sacramento bureaucracy a "mastodon frozen in time” but dropped plans to eliminate or consolidate dozens of boards and commissions.

Which leads to a central question for voters — which Schwarzenegger will show up next year? The conservative who blessed Bush’s candidacy in 2004 and wanted to kneecap public employee unions? Or the moderate who boosted the minimum wage, deserted Bush on road-building in forests and global warming, and embraced a Democratic plan to reform Los Angeles schools?

A new Schwarzenegger?

"That’s a facade,” said Eddie Ramirez, 22, a business management major at a Los Angeles technical school and a registered independent. Angelides is "the right guy for the job.”

But one Schwarzenegger advantage can be summed up in a few words: Arnold is Arnold. Phil is Phil.

Schwarzenegger’s international celebrity, combined with the visibility of his office, gives him what Democratic and labor consultant Larry Grisolano calls "superincumbency.”

Schwarzenegger can attract a dozen or more TV cameras anywhere, and voters tend to like him even if they don’t agree with him, polls have found.

Against the former champion strongman, Democrats are trying to use Angelides’ relative obscurity and rangy, bespectacled appearance as an advantage: "He’s a leader, not an actor,” one party ads says.

Schwarzenegger has another advantage — history.

Republicans have held the governorship for most of the last quarter-century, a reminder that character, issues or money can trump the state’s Democratic registration edge.

Set aside the quirky 2003 recall, when Davis, a Democrat, was run out of office, and you’d have to go back to 1966 to find another incumbent governor who was unseated. It was Pat Brown, who was ousted by another actor, Ronald Reagan, as he sought office for a third time in the era before term limits.

Undeterred, Angelides points to Harry Truman’s surprise victory in the 1948 presidential contest.

"This is a 12-round fight,” he says. "We are going to knock these folks out.”<