The election is over but for the counting

Consider this: The top vote-getting candidate, Democrat Josh Becker, raised and spent more money than any of the other candidates. The candidate with the second-most votes, lone Republican Alexander Glew, spent the least. Indeed, as noted by Becker in an email to the Daily Journal, a Great Metropolitan Newspaper, the candidates finished in inverse order to the money they raised, confirming, among other things, that he’s kind of a nerd.

As a note of caution, it is possible, remotely, that Sally Lieber could catch Glew in the late vote tallies, although the ratio of remaining votes she’d have to win suggests that’s unlikely. Yes, as one Lieber supporter testily noted, Lieber is in third, not Shelly Masur, as I said in last week’s column. Just in the time I started writing this column, Lieber gained 400 votes on Glew. These numbers are a moving target, although the fight for third place is hardly compelling drama.

The one certainty is that Becker should be glad to face Glew in the November general election. The district is 52.5% Democratic and 14.9% Republican. Voters who registered No Party Preference outnumber Reeps by almost 2-1. Glew ran 5 points ahead of his party’s registration, which is likely to be about as well as he’s going to do in November. Can he make a race out of it? No.

Republican registration is 14.9%. I can remember when Republicans roamed freely about the Peninsula countryside.

WHEN THE GOING GETS WEIRD: The weird turn pro, as mythic sportswriter Raoul Duke once said.

At least Becker’s campaign ran to classic form — he raised more money, campaigned the longest, had been on the ballot before, got a major independent expenditure boost and got what was, perhaps, the most influential endorsement — not Gov. Gavin Newsom, but termed-out state Sen. Jerry Hill. And among all the other Dems, he was the only one who ran equally strong in both San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.

Glew did virtually nothing, which is all he needed to do.

None of the other candidates showed strength outside the bases with which they started the campaign.

Lieber spent little, made a lot of campaign appearances and had served as an assemblywoman in Santa Clara County, where she got the second-most votes. She also had eight (8!) hit pieces sent out against her. It seems that they had little or no impact. Or maybe they kept her out of first place. Or maybe they generated such a backlash that it boosted her numbers. Who knows? It could be that all of that is true. Mainly, she ran last in San Mateo County, which is the larger share of the district and where there is daily postal delivery.

Masur had the widest and deepest connections in the district, the longest list of local civic leader endorsements and meaningful independent support from some of the most powerful special interests in the state — teachers and doctors. But she never seemed to reach beyond her extensive base in San Mateo County, where she finished third. Add it all up — fourth place.

Annie Oliva had a ton of money — that’s a technical term — spent on her behalf by her friends and associates from the Realtor world, and all it got her was a fifth-place finish in both counties.

And Mike Brownrigg spent a lot of his own money so, he said, he could spend more time meeting directly with voters. He said he held more than 110 living room campaign events. But in a district with more than half-million voters, it is not possible to meet enough people, assuming they all like you. He spent a lot of money early on television, but it didn’t seem to have much lasting impact.

WITHIN LIMITS: As did the other candidates, Becker agreed to the $930,000 voluntary campaign spending limit offered by the Fair Political Practices Commission. He raised more than $1 million, acknowledged campaign consultant Ed McGovern. But McGovern said $96,100 is dedicated to the November election and doesn’t count toward the primary spending cap. Another $79,519 was spent on items the FPPC exempts from the spending cap, including filing the spending reports, legal and accounting advice, even funding the election night party. Math it all up and Becker spent $920,262, and squeezed under the spending cap, which, McGovern noted, is a spending cap, not a fundraising cap.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.