China's trade surplus surges 20% to a record $1.2 trillion, even with Trump's tariffs

In December, China’s exports climbed 6.6% from the year before in dollar terms, better than economists’ estimates and higher than November’s 5.9% year-on-year increase. Imports in December were up 5.7% year-on-year, compared to November’s 1.9%.

China’s trade surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in November, when the trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of last year.

Economists expect exports will continue to support China’s economy this year, despite trade friction and geopolitical tensions.

“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.

While China’s exports to the U.S. fell sharply after Trump returned to office and escalated his trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, that decline has been largely offset by shipments to other markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

For the whole of 2025, China’s exports to the U.S. fell 20%. In contrast, exports to Africa surged 26%. Those to Southeast Asian countries jumped 13%; to the European Union 8%, and to Latin America, 7%.

Strong global demand for computer chips and other devices and the materials needed to make them were among categories that supported China’s exports, analysts said.

Car exports also grew last year. Auto exports surged 21% in 2025 to more than 7 million units, driven by electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry group, on Wednesday.

Mechanical and electrical items were the largest export category last year, rising 8.4% from a year earlier, customs data showed. China also exported more grain and fertilizer, while exports of furniture, clothing, shoes and other labor intensive products fell.

Strong exports have helped keep China's economy growing at an annual rate close to its official target of about 5%. That has triggered alarm in countries that fear a flood of cheap imports is damaging local industries.

China faces a “severe and complex” external trade environment in 2026, Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration, told reporters in Beijing. But he said China’s “foreign trade fundamentals remain solid.”

“Even if exports sustain neutral or positive growth this year, more of China’s growth drivers will need to come from domestic demand,” wrote HSBC economists Erin Xin and Taylor Wang in a note on Wednesday.

The head of the International Monetary Fund last month called for China to fix its economic imbalances and speed up its shift from reliance on exports by boosting domestic consumption and investment.

A prolonged property downturn in China after the authorities cracked down on excessive borrowing, triggering defaults by many developers, is still weighing on consumer confidence and domestic demand.

China’s leaders have made increasing spending by consumers and businesses a focus of economic policy, but actions taken so far have had a limited impact. That included government trade-in subsidies over the past months that encouraged consumers to buy newer, more energy efficient items, such as home appliances and vehicles.

“We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid,” said Rong of BNP Paribas. “In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year -- in particular the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods.”

In the case of autos, domestic passenger car sales rose 6% in 2025, according to industry figures, but they fell back toward the end of the year as subsidies were scaled back or phased out in some areas.

Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, forecasts that China’s exports will grow about 3% in 2026, less than the 5.5% growth in 2025. With slow import growth, he expects China's trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.