The time is now

Based on data compiled by PDI, an elections data company, the vote will be more conservative, older and whiter than the state’s broader political profile.

Only about 9% of Democrats have voted through Wednesday, compared to 15% of Republicans. Democrats still dominate the landscape — twice as many have voted as Reeps. But the GOP percentage of the total will be larger than expected. PDI’s data shows that in just about every category, Republican turnout is running ahead of turnout in the 2022 primary election. Turnout in 65-plus voters is 18%, more than all the other age groups combined.

As I have reported here more than once, some unknown number of not-yet voters are waiting for polls in the governor’s race that show a clear-cut Democratic leader.

A poll conducted last week on behalf of the state Democratic Party, showed Republican Steve Hilton, a cable TV host, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, former head of U.S. Health and Human Services, in a virtual tie at 22 and 21, respectively. Billionaire Tom Steyer is at 15%.

If you plan to show up, you probably ought to do so now.

AN OTHERWISE OBSCURE OFFICE: Locally, all the heat is being provided by the race for county assessor-clerk-recorder-elections chief between Assistant Assessor (etc.) Jim Irizarry and Supervisor David Canepa.

Wednesday, Irizarry posted a campaign reel with the headline “Who is David Canepa Really Working For?” The ad asserts that “most of” Canepa’s campaign donors are San Francisco or “special interests.”

Indeed, Canepa, who began his political career as an aide to San Francisco-based state Sen. Leland Yee, who later went to prison on racketeering charges, long has had close ties to San Francisco politics.

Canepa’s most recent campaign finance reports show substantial donations from San Francisco and, oddly, Southern California, but a lot of local donors, too. Reports also show him way ahead of Irizarry in fundraising. Through May 16, Canepa has raised nearly $247,000 to Irizarry’s nearly $138,000.

The Irizarry ad says he “doesn’t take a dime from special interests.” Or virtually anyone else. Irizarry is far and away the largest donor to his own campaign, in the neighborhood of $125,000 of his own money. His latest report shows only 14 other donors, including former Rep. Anna Eshoo.

For all the high-profile opposition from his Board of Supervisor colleagues, Canepa, perhaps for the first time, is enjoying support from mainstream political figures in the county. Canepa has been aided substantially by a strong endorsement from county labor.

In the end, this race comes down, it would seem, to what Canepa will do with the office versus what Irizarry has done with it.

As reported here last week, some staff at the Assessor (etc.) office are deeply unhappy with Irizarry’s leadership under the regime of retiring incumbent Mark Church.

Irizarry finally responded to the accusations I passed along: “While some employees will not agree with every decision, I maintain professional working relationships with staff across the department focused on positive employer-employee relations.” He said accusations a new computer “resulted in uncontrolled cost overruns or jeopardized the assessment roll are simply inaccurate and do not reflect the documented performance of the system.” He also said the total cost of the new system is $45 million, not the $70 million his detractors cite.

Within county government, and more broadly, the office enjoys a good reputation, and is credited with effective management of elections and of consistently closing the assessment rolls every year.

As I referenced at the start of this item, the office generally has had a low profile. That, almost assuredly, will change under Canepa, who has a well-documented propensity for attracting news media attention, largely for himself. This office does not lend itself to the kind of sweeping and self-promoting behavior for which Canepa is known. It is about the serious business of people’s property, vital records and unimpeachable elections. He has no experience or credentials in these matters.

Still, the past is not always prologue: Canepa has conducted an unusually serious campaign and it is conceivable his promotional skills would be useful in building voter participation.

That might have been helpful in a poor-turnout election such as this one.