County jobless rate remains at 2.1 percent

Based on his analysis of the October data, economist Jon Haveman of Marin Economic Consulting found the county posted very little change in information services jobs but solid growth in the professional, science and technology services, two sectors he said largely capture the performance of tech jobs.

Though the some 6 percent increase in the annualized growth in retail services logged in the county last month was surprising to him, Haveman said the 1.3 percent annualized monthly growth in county jobs he observed last month was largely in line with statistics posted for the county in the last six months.

In the face of federal tax law adjustments passed in late 2017 and a spending bill approved earlier this year — two major federal policies expected to stimulate the U.S. economy — Haveman said he expected to see more job growth in the Bay Area than is being recorded.

“I would say that growth in 2018 really has been slower than I would have expected it to be, especially given the policy changes that happened in 2017 and early 2018,” he said.

Whether the low levels of growth were a function of long-standing Bay Area challenges such as rising housing costs and traffic congestion remained a question for Haveman, who noted more cyclical elements like lagging growth in private investments in the United States and a flat third quarter performance across most sectors could also be at play. He added a range of other shifts in federal policy, including the trade war the United States is having with China and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, could be contributing to a sense of economic uncertainty for employers.

“There are lots of uncertainties that are probably restraining growth,” he said.

But because experts have long predicted a major slowdown in the economy, the modest but steady job growth logged in the county was welcomed by Rosanne Foust, president and CEO of the San Mateo County Economic Development Association.

Though she acknowledged minor downshifts in residential and commercial rents may be an indication of some slowing growth, Foust wondered when an economic downturn will take shape, noting employers and their new hires are still gravitating toward the region despite the region’s high cost of living and traffic congestion.

“People still want to be here,” she said. “They don’t seem deterred by the things we seem to worry about all the time.”

What Foust has seen among larger employers such as Google, Facebook and Genentech is a trend toward establishing “node” offices in several locations throughout the Bay Area to ease the commute of employees who live farther away from their employer’s headquarters. She added she has also seen an uptick in the number of private companies willing to contribute to efforts aimed at alleviating regional traffic congestion, such as the Highway 101 Managed Lanes project, which will build a new lane in each direction on Highway 101 between Interstate 380 and Whipple Road to create express lanes with potential tolls.

With the EDD’s data showing 9,800 individuals unemployed in the county and reports from employment agencies showing up to 3,700 jobs may be available to them, Foust said community colleges, employers and job training programs, among others, have been in talks about how to provide more candidates with the skills needed to fill those jobs.

She pegged certificate programs allowing individuals to develop skills in short-term timeframes as one strategy employers and educational institutions are focused on to bridge the gap in skills they are finding among candidates in almost every sector. Foust added maintaining a diversity of employers — from technology startups to industrial companies producing precision parts — in the county would also be critical to ensuring job growth remains steady, pegging the clustering of industrial businesses along roads like Old County Road, Industrial Road and Bay Road as a sign of this healthy mix of employers.

“The one thing I’ve always found interesting about San Mateo County is the diversity of industry,” she said. “I think it’s really important up and down the Peninsula to really have that.”

anna@smdailyjournal.com

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