Poll shows Becerra and Hilton are pulling ahead of the pack in California’s governor race

If they finish in the top two next week, they will face each other in the November general election. But the poll also found that Democrats have nearly 2-to-1 support from voters in California versus Republicans, a trend the PPIC has consistently identified since December.

While polling should always be met with skepticism, this latest survey suggests that Becerra will be California’s next governor. It’s a remarkable possibility for a candidate who was barely visible in the early stages of the primary but rocketed into contention after former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign imploded after a wave of sexual misconduct allegations.

The PPIC poll found that 23% of likely voters have voted or plan to vote for Becerra, followed by Hilton at 20% and billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 15%, the same trailing position he’s occupied for weeks despite spending nearly $200 million on ads, many waging harsh political attacks on Becerra.

At one time, Democratic leaders were worried that Hilton and Chad Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, might finish 1-2 and freeze out Democrats. Swalwell’s abrupt departure and Becerra’s equally sudden rise quashed that scenario.

Bianco gets 13% in the PPIC poll, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter at 12%.

Although the GOP threat has faded, the faint possibility that it could have occurred unnerved Democrats. Some are pushing for a ballot measure to jettison the top-two primary system and return to closed party primaries.

The top-two system was adopted by voters in 2010 after Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislative leaders placed it on the ballot as part of a budget deal. Schwarzenegger said a top-two system, dubbed a “jungle primary” by some, would result in more centrist legislators being elected because candidates would have to appeal to a wider array of voters.

Whether that has been the outcome is debatable, but leaders of both parties never liked the system that was forced on them.

The PPIC poll, however, found that voters still like it.

“About 6 in 10 say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates in the governor’s race and think that the top-two primary has been mostly a good thing for California since Proposition 14 passed in 2010,” the PPIC’s pollsters said in their analysis.

The poll confirming Becerra and Hilton as the potential top two finishers is the latest wrinkle in a primary campaign that has been impossible to handicap because none of the serious candidates, originally a dozen out of 61 names on the ballot, stood out as an obvious leader.

Politicians who would have been obvious leaders, such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, Attorney General Rob Bonta or Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, all passed. Kounalakis initially filed to run for governor but eventually opted to run for state treasurer.

Swalwell was in a leading position in the early going but suspended his campaign in April after the San Francisco Chronicle revealed allegations from women about sexual assaults. After more reports surfaced, he resigned from Congress.

Becerra, who had been stuck in the lower tier of candidates, immediately shot to the top. Meanwhile, two Democrats who had been expected to be contenders, Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, never clicked.

Steyer has remained in contention with his historically heavy barrage of ads, both positive and negative, but doesn’t appear to have broken through. His campaign scrambled to discredit the PPIC poll, calling it “an outdated snapshot.”

Dan Walters has been a journalist for more than 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times. CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics. He can be reached at dan@calmatters.org.