200 ballot items bring possibility of big change

"Voters tend really to be risk-aversive," said professor Todd Donovan, a ballot measure scholar at Western Washington University. "That's why these things tend to fail."

Whether it's a law of human nature or the nature of American politics, the public historically turns down more than half of such proposals. And good times tend to spell even worse times for ballot questions.

"The time these things do well is when there's a lot of discontent," said Carroll Doherty, a political poll analyst at the non-partisan Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in Washington. "This is a period of low anger and outrage and discontent."

Unlike polls for office-seekers, opinion surveys about ballot proposals often include large chunks in the undecided column, even shortly before the elections in question.

A measure to end dog racing in Massachusetts, for instance, recently drew 24 percent undecided in a poll of registered voters, with 39 percent opposed to the ban and 37 percent in favor.

Given those numbers, odds are the measure will fail. "Undecided" tends to become a "no" vote Election Day, said Donovan, the political science professor.

Besides California school vouchers, defeat also looks likely for a Michigan proposal to give vouchers estimated at $3,300 to any child in a failing school district.

In Oregon, where everyone votes by mail, the ballot includes a hefty 26 measures. Results aren't revealed until Tuesday, but recent surveys signal doom for the more drastic measures -- proposals to bar schools from "promoting" homosexuality; allow a full state deduction for federal taxes, thereby sharply shrinking the state budget; end mandatory minimum sentences for 21 violent crimes, including murder; and link teacher pay to student performance.

Other probable losers, judging from recent surveys, are a Maine proposal to allow voting by mentally ill people who have court-appointed guardians. Voters may go for more controlled change. Oregon and Colorado polls find two-thirds or more registered voters support proposals in those states to require a background check before any gun show purchase. Also expected to pass are Nevada and Colorado proposals to allow marijuana for medical use. Surveys suggest victory also is probable for a California measure to send minor, non-violent drug offenders to treatment instead of prison. Gay rights could win approval in Maine. Nebraska and Nevada proposals to enshrine marriage for men and women only, also look likely to succeed. Others, like the presidential race, remain tossups.<