How Trump went from threatening Iran's annihilation to agreeing to a 2-week ceasefire with Tehran

"The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East," Trump said in a social media post Tuesday announcing the temporary ceasefire. It came about 90 minutes before his deadline for Tehran to open the critical Strait of Hormuz or see its power plants and other critical infrastructure obliterated.

But even as the White House was celebrating the moment as a victory, the fragile ceasefire appeared in danger of falling apart Wednesday as the U.S., Iran and Israel offered differing statements on what was included in the deal less than 24 hours after it was brokered.

Iran insisted that an end to the Israeli war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement with the U.S. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump said the truce did not cover Lebanon and the Israeli operations there continued.

The U.S., meanwhile, demanded that Iran make good on reopening the strait after the Islamic Republic closed the waterway in response to Israel's intensifying attacks against the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.

Trump to hold talks with NATO secretary-general

The president was to meet at the White House with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Wednesday, with the emerging plan to reopen the strait expected to be at the center of their talks. Trump has been angry that NATO member countries ignored his call to help reopen the vital waterway as gas prices soared during the war.

As the deadline neared, Democratic lawmakers decried Trump's threat to wipe away an entire civilization as "a moral failure." Pope Leo XIV warned that strikes against civilian infrastructure would violate international law and said the Republican president's comments were "truly unacceptable."

In the end, Trump may have backed down because of a simple truth: Escalation could risk involving the United States in the sort of "forever war" that had bedeviled his predecessors in the White House and that he had vowed he would keep the U.S. out of if voters elected him again.

Controlling the strait would have been long and costly

As Trump boasted about U.S. and Israeli military success over the past six weeks, he appeared to be working from the premise that he could bomb Iran into capitulation.

Starting with the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening salvos, he seemed to discount that the Iranian leadership could opt for a long and bloody war.

The Islamic Republic over the past 47 years has shown it is willing to dig in, even when it appears to America to be working against its own self-interest.

The clerical leadership held Americans hostage for 444 days, from late 1979 to early 1981, at the cost of the country's international standing. The mullahs allowed the Iran-Iraq war to go on for years, leaving hundreds of thousands dead. Iran stood by Hamas after the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that ultimately defanged the Iran-backed group in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and created the conditions that led to the collapse of Bashar Assad's government in Syria, an authoritarian rule supported by Tehran.

Iran's leadership exuded confidence that it could bog down the world's superpower in a costly and extended conflict even if it might not defeat the U.S. military.

Defense analysts largely agreed that the U.S. military could quickly take control of the narrow Persian Gulf waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows on any given day. But maintaining security over the strait would require a high-risk, resource-intensive operation that could be a yearslong American commitment.

Ben Connable, executive director of the nonprofit Battle Research Group, said securing the strait would require the U.S. military to maintain control of about 600 kilometers (373 miles) of Iranian territory, from Kish Island in the west to Bandar Abbas in the east, in order to stop Iran from firing missiles at passing ships. It is a mission that Connable said would likely require three U.S. infantry divisions, roughly 30,000 to 45,000 troops.

"This would be an indefinite operation — so, you know, think: be ready to do this for 20 years," said Connable, a retired Marine Corps intelligence officer. "We didn't think we were going to be in Afghanistan for 20 years. We didn't think we're going to have to be in Vietnam as long as we were, or Iraq."

The two-week ceasefire includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through Hormuz, a regional official said. The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday noted that Trump has considered the idea of a toll for vessels passing through the strait. But in the near term, his priority "is the reopening of the strait without any limitations, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise."

Vance played a bigger role close to the deadline

The White House confirmed that Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. negotiating team in talks with Iran aimed at finding a permanent end to war.

The delegation is also expected to include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The talks are expected to begin Friday in Pakistan.

"Vice President Vance has played a very significant and a key role in this since the very beginning," Leavitt said.

Trump's deadline was nearing with no resolution in sight when Vance, who has long pushed for restraint in U.S. military intervention overseas, got roped into the conversation, according to an official from one of the mediating countries who was briefed on the matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive diplomatic discussions.

Vance, who was traveling in Hungary in support of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán before upcoming elections, said Wednesday that the agreement with Iran was "a fragile truce."

"I think if they negotiate in good faith, we will be able to find a deal. That's a big if. And ultimately, it's up to the Iranians how they negotiate. I hope they make the right decision," said Vance, who was to travel back to Washington on Wednesday before heading to Islamabad.