China's exports surge in Jan-Feb despite waning trade with the US

Shipments to the U.S. fell 11% in January and February, narrowing from a 30% drop in December. Exports to the European Union increased almost 28% while those to Latin America climbed 16%.

Exports to the rest of Asia, including Japan and India, also were sharply higher.

China’s exports have been a bright spot for its economy despite tensions with the U.S. Chinese exports climbed 5.5% for 2025 as its trade surplus surged to a record of nearly $1.2 trillion. Higher shipments to other regions have helped offset weaker exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a variety of higher tariffs on imports from many countries.

The boom in use of artificial intelligence is driving strong demand for computer chips of all kinds. China's exports of semiconductors by value soared nearly 73% in the first two months of the year, partly also lifted by higher prices as the world faces a memory chip shortage. Its exports of autos rose 67% and mechanical and electrical items rose 27%.

Trump’s planned visit to Beijing at the end of March is being closely watched for a possible extension of a trade truce between the two countries reached in October last year, which could be positive news for Chinese exports to the U.S.

A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s sweeping tariffs has already resulted in lower tariffs for countries including China.

“While the recent pace of gains is unlikely to be sustained, exports are likely to remain robust given the recent decline in U.S. tariffs and strong demand for semiconductors,” Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

China's total imports in January and February rose almost 20%, up from December’s 5.7% year-on-year increase. However, its imports from the United States dropped nearly 27% from a year earlier.

China's global trade surplus in January-February was $213.6 billion. Trade data is typically combined for January to February each year to help even out seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year festival, the biggest holiday of the year.

A slowing domestic economy fueled by a yearslong property sector downturn has been weighing on the world's second largest economy. Last week, Chinese leaders announced an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, the lowest since 1991.

The war in the Middle East has raised uncertainty over the outlook for trade and for China's own energy security. An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for much of the world's trade in oil and gas, may restrict China’s access to relatively cheap Iranian oil and also impede its broader commerce with the region.

For China, export competitiveness is paramount, said Han Lin, China Country Director at consultancy The Asia Group. “Energy inflation is the last thing Beijing policymakers need," he said.

If the war drags on, a surge in oil prices fueling global inflation could also weaken consumption abroad, potentially hurting overseas demand for Chinese goods, said Daniel Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.