In “Meditations,” Marcus Aurelius wrote: “Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.”
Which is as good a way as any to start the final 2023 edition of notes, quotes, etc., and a useful harbinger for what kind of campaign we could see in the race to replace Rep. Anna Eshoo, who is retiring from the 16th Congressional District seat.
A scant few days apart, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and former Saratoga Councilmember Rishi Kumar issued conflicting, even confusing, sets of poll numbers about a race that has barely begun, and will be over before you know it (see below).
Liccardo’s poll shows him leading the nine-candidate race with 25% of the vote. Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian is at 14%, Assemblymember Evan Low at 10%, Kumar at 6%; all the other Democrats are at 3% or less; Republicans Peter Ohtaki and Karl Ryan are at 6% each; the number of undecided voters is at 27%.
The poll from Kumar, a persistent candidate for this seat, shows him leading with 12%, Simitian at 10%, Liccardo at 7%, Low at 6%; undecided voters is at 57%
Each poll was conducted by reputable and credible firms, but, golly, they cannot both be right.
Or maybe they can. Who really knows?
The 57% undecided makes the most sense to me; but the same poll shows Kumar ahead and that makes little sense.
The only really useful information to be gleaned from these polls lies in the fact that this is an open primary — all nine candidates will be on the same ballot; the top two finishers will be in the November general election. It looks like it will take 25% of the vote, maybe even less, to get into the general.
SPRINTING TO MARCH: It is understandable — and particularly urgent — that these candidates do everything they can to make an impression on voters, and on potential donors and skeptical columnists.
It is worth emphasizing repeatedly that the primary is on March 5, only 82 days from today. Mail-in ballots begin dropping 56 days from now.
PEACE IS AT HAND: At least two cities managed to select a mayor without fighting and fussing — Anders Fung in Millbrae and Sue Vaterlaus in Pacifica. And good for the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors for settling their own rotation dispute by unanimously accepting a compromise by Supervisor Ray Mueller in which he agreed to go to the end of the line. Thoughtful compromise for the greater good — that is what U.S. Rep. Kevin Mullin was talking about in his Daily Journal Op-Ed last week.
Ah, but not so fast. Daly City managed to descend into bitter disagreement as departing Councilmember Ray Buenaventura maneuvered his council to pick Juslyn Manalo as mayor by a 3-2 vote. There were accusations of racism and even antisemitism as Councilmember Pamela DiGiovanni was passed over for the gavel. If you look at the council’s webpage, you will see only three of them there.
SAME FIGHT, NEW VENUE: The latest battleground in the ongoing fight for control of the San Mateo County Democratic Party between progressives and pragmatics has moved to the March ballot and the races for seats on the Democratic Central Committee.
Slates have been lined up and feature current and former elected officials running in races that usually attract the insiders of insiders.
Among those identified with the progressives: Supervisor Noelia Corzo, South San Francisco Councilmember James Coleman, and Foster City Councilmember Sam Hindi, and former councilmembers Maryann Moise from Portola Valley and Sue Digre from Pacifica. From the ranks of pragmatics are Millbrae Councilmember Gina Papan, former state Sen. Jerry Hill, former San Mateo Councilmember Maureen Freschet and San Carlos councilmembers Adam Rak and Pranita Venkatesh. It may seem like much ado about nothing, but the Central Committee will decide on official Democratic Party endorsements in next year’s elections.
JUST SAYING NO: The rush by regional authorities to create a monolithic transit oversight agency and to merge BART and Caltrain, may have gotten a boost from a recent, and somewhat dubious, poll. But there is near-unanimous opposition to either proposal on the Peninsula from San Bruno to San Jose.
The first test will be not at the ballot box in 2026, but in the Legislature, where a proposal will be introduced next year to clear a path for a tax hike to pay for all this. That puts Assemblymember Diane Papan and state Sen. Josh Becker smack in the middle of the issue in a reelection year.
Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.
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(9) comments
If the polls for CD-16 are correct, the voters want more of the same: high-inflation, high-debt, and global elites.
Inflation is actually pretty low; so is unemployment.
Inflation is pretty low if you compare Biden’s inflation rates to a few annual rates from 30 and 40 years ago. I’d venture a guess that almost half the US population today hasn’t seen annual inflation rates as high as they are under Biden. You can make the case 3.1% monthly inflation is low until compared to the past annual rates of inflation of 4.7%, 8.0%, and likely over 4% annual rate this year. Unfortunately, thanks to Biden’s America Last policies, consumers are paying on average, almost 19% more than before. Inflation isn’t pretty low then, is it? In fact, it's not pretty at all.
Your idea of low inflation is akin to an investor ignoring compounding investment dividends or compounding interest or in your case of simple thinking and ignoring compounding inflation.. $1.00 x 1.08% = $1.08 x 1.06% = $1.145 x 1.06% = $1.21 x 1.06% = $1.28 x $1.03 = $1.32. Mark and his democrat cohorts are happy that prices only went up .04% to $1.32 and ignores the facts that five stages earlier the price was $1.00. That's a 32% increase, not 3%.
Hey Not So Common, I hope it's okay I borrow your example, or the gist of it to use elsewhere. Even for math-challenged folks, it's an eye-opener. And for everyone, a wallet-opener.
Come on Mark - the rate of inflation is lower but it is still very high. Have you gone shopping lately? Have you seen prices drops? Are we supposed to be thrilled with $5.00 gas instead of $6.00 per gallon? Unemployment numbers are low because millions have given up looking for suitable work. Unemployment stats are based on unemployment benefit requests but eligibility has expired for millions. Remember there are lies, darn lies and and statistics.
I bought gas at Costco yesterday - $3.99.
Great Mark - the lower price is the result of Biden draining our petroleum reserves and sold it on the world market at a loss. The cost of cast was 40% lower when Trump ran the country. Congratulations! While you were at Costco, did you enjoy the significant price reductions on everything that is sold there?
Wait, what? Mr. Simon, you’re a former executive at SamTrans and Caltrain and you’re still driving a gasoline-powered car? I guess mass transportation isn’t as important as some folks say it is. I wonder of all the employees at SamTrans and Caltrain, what percentage takes mass transportation, as reported by salary ranges. I get the feeling plenty of folks, former and current, are buying gas.
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