China test-launches a ballistic missile in the South Pacific and raises regional concerns

The 2024 launch mirrored the testing the United States conducts for its own ballistic missile fleet, which experts viewed as an assertion of China's growing superpower status.

Monday's launch, at 12:01 p.m. local time, was part of routine annual training, complied with international law and practice and was not directed against any country or target, according to a short statement from Xinhua, which was reposted by the Ministry of Defense.

Australia, Japan and New Zealand express criticism

Beijing's militarization has drawn concerns, and Australia, Japan and New Zealand criticized the launch.

The New Zealand government said it was informed hours beforehand and noted that the missile was fired into the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone.

The zone was established by the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga, which prohibits nuclear weapons throughout the region. China ratified the protocols in 1987, pledging not to test nuclear weapons within the zone or threaten to use them against signatories with territory in the region.

"It appears that despite our long-standing concerns about this type of activity, China carried out the test within hours of informing us," Foreign Minister Winston Peters told The Associated Press in a statement.

The launch took place the same day Australia and Fiji signed a new mutual defense treaty meant to counter Chinese influence in the Pacific.

"Australia has been clear with China that we regard this as destabilizing to the region," Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong told reporters in Fiji in response to the test.

Japan's Defense Ministry in a statement expressed concern about China's increasing military activity and urged Beijing to "rethink" its missile testing so that the projectiles would not fly over Japan or pose other security risks.

"China's military activities, combined with its lack of transparency, have become a grave concern for Japan and the international society," Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said in Japan, citing Beijing's military activities around Japan and its increased military spending.

Beijing brushed off the criticism.

"We hope that the relevant countries will avoid overinterpretation," a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said.

Expert says it's a signal to the United States

The concern is a result of a lack of clear information, said Drew Thompson, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore: "China's military modernization and buildup have occurred without concurrent increases in openness and transparency, resulting in uncertainty about China's intentions."

Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, said the launch was the first publicly acknowledged test with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine of the Chinese navy to travel this far into the Pacific.

Morris said it is noteworthy that the information available shows Japan, New Zealand and Australia received notifications in advance, but not the U.S.

The test was a signal to the U.S., he said: "The announcement demonstrates that China's nuclear deterrent is no longer centered solely on land-based missiles."

China maintains a "no first use" of nuclear weapons policy, but is also actively pursuing nuclear technology and weaponry as part of its long-term strategy to modernize the People's Liberation Army.

China has a fleet of six ballistic-missile submarines and 59 nuclear-powered attack submarines, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington-based think tank.

In its latest report to Congress on China's military capabilities, released in late 2025, the Pentagon said China had an estimated stockpile of around 600 nuclear warheads in 2024, adding that the PLA remains on track to field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.