Get ready for the loss of Taiwan

Ukraine, a struggling democracy, is recognized worldwide and previously by Russia as a sovereign nation. Taiwan, a vibrant democracy, is considered by China, the United States, and most nations a part of China, not a sovereign nation.

The United States does not have a defense treaty with Ukraine but supports it because it is a democracy and sovereign nation. It is also concerned about spillover to NATO allies bordering Ukraine, who it is obligated to militarily defend. The United States does not have a treaty obligation to militarily defend Taiwan, an island with no one on its borders. The United States, however, is obligated to support it until such time as the Taiwanese desire to peacefully unite with China.

The Ukrainian people have demonstrated a hard-core willingness to fight to the death while suffering a humanitarian crisis, but the jury is out as to the willingness, much less the ability of the Taiwanese to do the same.

The international community has come to the aid of Ukraine but its warnings to Putin neither detered him, nor have the sanctions caused him to stop the devastation. What will happen with Taiwan?

The U.S. administration has made clear it will not directly militarily engage Russia over Ukraine to avoid a potential World War III. Without direct military intervention by the United States and its allies, Taiwan cannot deny a Chinese invasion. Despite the U.S. official position of “strategic ambiguity” as to whether it will militarily fight China to prevent a successful invasion, the lesson President Xi will likely draw is that the United States will not do so.

In military circles, there are debates about whether an invasion of Taiwan can be prevented through either the appearance of demonstrated capability to impose unacceptable military costs to the Chinese or by using that capability in the event of an invasion, as compared to merely punishing China after the fact. One lesson from Ukraine is that if an invasion is not prevented, devastation may follow.

If there is a fight, the Taiwanese and the United States would bear the brunt of actual fighting if it chose to militarily engage. Many U.S. military leaders believe neither Taiwan nor the United States currently has the military capability to “deny” an invasion, even assuming the United States would try.

While the Chinese military has been built up for years aimed at a successful invasion, and Chinese military leaders believe it can be accomplished at “an acceptable cost,” the timeline is unclear. But seasoned observers think it is anywhere from a few years from now to a decade.

Putin, long ago, made clear his intentions but the international community did not make the geopolitical, military and economic decisions to “deny” or mitigate the consequences. President Xi has made clear China’s destiny is to absorb Taiwan during his reign. What decisions will we make?

Time is short for Taiwan. For any possibility to successfully deter an invasion, the United States, Taiwan and its allies must come to consensus on a fighting strategy and the defense budgets must focus on the practical, readily available, useful weapons and training.

Though sanctions would undoubtedly hurt China, so too the rest of the world. Sanctions imposed after the fact will not work.

U.S. business and the international community better get prepared for the “loss” of Taiwan and the consequences to follow.

Jim Hartnett is an attorney, consultant, former member of Naval Security Group, certificate holder from Harvard Kennedy School on programs in national and international security, and cybersecurity. He is the former general manager and CEO of the San Mateo County Transit District.