Trump keeps telling America he's winning in Iran. He's less clear in explaining how the war ends

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday told reporters that it was up to Trump “whether it’s the beginning, the middle or the end” of the war. Trump, during the course of one speech at a House Republican gathering Monday, went from calling the war a “short-term excursion” that could end soon to proclaiming “we haven’t won enough."

The vacillation has fueled criticism from those who say Trump lacks a clear goal. “They didn’t have a plan," Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., told reporters. "They have no timeline. And because of that, they have no exit strategy.”

A constantly shifting goal line

Since ordering the Iran bombardment, Trump has continually shifted his timelines and goals for the war.

Over the past few days, Trump has called for the “unconditional surrender" of Iran's leaders, while suggesting he was already succeeded in achieving his objective of decimating Iran’s military.

At the same time, Trump's team has sought to soothe anxious Americans that the war will not be long and drawn out even as the president has insisted he has not ruled out the option of using U.S. ground troops.

The U.S. military says it has effectively destroyed the Iranian navy and made huge strides in defanging Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones at its neighbors. Yet the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes on a typical day, remains essentially closed to business, and Iranian leaders are unbowed.

The Revolutionary Guard said Iran would not allow “a single liter of oil” through the vital waterway until the United States stopped its bombing campaign. Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official, offered a menacing message on Tuesday after Trump had threatened to attack Iran “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if Tehran stopped oil flowing through the strait.

“The sacrificial nation of Iran doesn’t fear your empty threats,” Larijani wrote on X. “Even those bigger than you couldn’t eliminate Iran. Be careful not to get eliminated yourself.”

Trump ally Newt Gingrich, a former Republican House speaker, said the administration should have moved on securing the strait on Day One of the conflict.

“If they can’t keep it open, this war will in fact be an American defeat before very long, because the entire world, including the American people, will react to the price of oil if the strait stay closed very long,” Gingrich said in an appearance on Fox Business.

Making the case to Americans

Trump has struggled to make his case to Americans about why preemptive action against Iran was necessary and how it squared with his pledge to keep the United States out of the “forever wars” of the past two decades. Thus far, seven U.S. troops have been killed and about 140 injured in the retaliatory salvos from Iran throughout the region.

One of several reasons Trump has offered to justify launching the war was that he had a “feeling” that Iran was getting set to attack the U.S.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt slightly amended that position, telling reporters that the president “had a feeling” that was “based on fact.”

But Pentagon officials have told congressional staffers in private briefings that the U.S. does not have intelligence indicating that Iran was planning to preemptively attack the U.S.

Recent polling shows Trump's decision to attack Iran has not come with the rallying-around-the-flag effect that has typically accompanied the start of recent U.S. wars.

About half of voters in Quinnipiac and Fox News polls said the U.S. military action in Iran makes the U.S. “less safe,” while only about 3 in 10 in each poll said it made the country safer. A CNN poll found about half of U.S. adults thought the military action would make Iran “more of a threat” to the U.S., while only about 3 in 10 thought it would lessen the danger.

In that CNN poll, about 6 in 10 U.S. adults said they trusted Trump “not much” or “not at all” to make the right decisions about the U.S. use of force in Iran.

European allies are treading carefully after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez faced the wrath of Trump, who deemed them not sufficiently supportive in backing his war of choice.

Even German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been broadly supportive of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, said on Tuesday that “more questions arise with every day of war.”

“Above all, we’re concerned that there is apparently no joint plan for how this war can be brought quickly to a convincing end,” Merz said.

Merz stressed that “Germany and Europe have no interest in an endless war” or in Iran’s territorial integrity disintegrating.

Deflecting responsibility for school bombing

Trump has chosen to deflect responsibility for the bombing of a girl's school in southern Iran on the first day of the conflict, killing at least 165 people.

Trump on Saturday blamed the attack on Iran, saying its security forces are "very inaccurate" with munitions.

On Monday, after the investigative group Bellingcat posted verified video that showed a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile hitting a Revolutionary Guard facility near the school, causing the explosion, Trump again insisted it could have been Iran's fault but said that he would accept whatever a U.S. investigation into the matter might find.

The president erroneously claimed that Tehran had access to Tomahawks, a U.S.-manufactured weapon system that is only available to the U.S. and a few close allies.

Asked by a reporter, Leavitt did not directly answer why Trump falsely asserted that Iran has access to the U.S.-made missile.

Instead, she responded in part that “the president has a right to share his opinions with the American public” while noting “he has said he’ll accept the conclusion of that investigation.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters that Trump's claim “is beyond asinine.”

“Again, he says whatever pops into his head no matter what the truth is," Schumer said. “And we all know he lies, but on something as formidable as this, it’s appalling.”

Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., was among Trump allies gently making the case that it was important for the administration to clarify what happened to the school.

Cramer said the military must “do everything you can to eliminate those mistakes going forward.”

“But you also can’t undo it," he added.

This story has been corrected to show seven, not eight, U.S. troops have been killed.

Associated Press writers Geir Moulson in Berlin and Joey Cappelletti, Ben Finley and Linley Sanders contributed to this report.