Egg prices continue to hit records as Easter and Passover approach, but some relief may be coming

Avian flu has forced farmers to slaughter more than 166 million birds, mostly egg-laying chickens. Just since the start of the year, more than 30 million egg layers have been killed.

If prices remain high, it will be third year in a row consumers have faced sticker shock ahead of Easter on April 20 and Passover, which starts on the evening of April 12, both occasions in which eggs play prominent roles.

The price had consistently been below $2 a dozen for decades before the disease struck. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects egg prices to rise 41% this year over last year's average of $3.17 per dozen.

But there may be light at the end of the tunnel. The USDA reported last week that egg shortages are easing and wholesale prices are dropping, which might provide relief on the retail side before this year's late Easter, which is three weeks later than last year. It said there had been no major bird flu outbreak for two weeks.

"Shoppers have begun to see shell egg offerings in the dairycase becoming more reliable although retail price levels have yet to adjust and remain off-putting to many," the USDA wrote in the March 7 report.

David Anderson, a professor and extension economist for livestock and food marketing at Texas A&M University, said wholesale figures dropping is a good sign that prices could go down as shoppers react to the high prices by buying fewer eggs.

"What that should tell us is things are easing a little bit in terms of prices," he said. "So going forward, the next CPI report may very well indicate falling egg prices."

However, he doesn't expect lasting changes until bird stock can be replenished and production can be replaced.

"Record high prices is a market signal to producers to produce more, but it takes time to be able to produce more, and we just haven't had enough time for that to happen yet," he said. "But I do think it's going to happen. But it's going to take some more months to get there."

Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, said wholesale prices dropping is good news, but noted that increased demand for Easter could drive a temporary increase in prices.

"In addition, egg farmers are closely watching spring migration of wild birds, recognizing that wild birds are a leading cause of the spread of this virus and pose a great and ongoing threat to egg-laying flocks," she said.

Advocacy groups and others have also called for a probe into whether egg producers have used the avian flu to price gouge. But egg producers say the avian flu is solely behind the elevated prices.

Meanwhile, restaurants have added surcharges and made other changes to offset the cost of eggs.

The Trump administration has unveiled a plan to combat bird flu, including a $500 million investment to help farmers bolster biosecurity measures, $400 million in additional aid for farmers whose flocks have been impacted by avian flu, and $100 million to research and potentially develop vaccines and therapeutics for U.S. chicken flocks, among other measures. But it will likely take a while for that plan to make an impact.