Survey: San Mateo voters likely to pass hotel tax hike

Conducted by the firm True North Research, the survey in both English and Spanish reached about 851 registered voters — and ones likely to cast a vote in November — between May 19 and May 29.

Support for the hotel tax hike was 64% based on the ballot language and it increased to 72% when participants learned more about the proposed measure, specifically that visitors rather than residents are the ones who pay hotel tax. Only a simple majority of votes is needed for the measure to pass.

“I think you have a good chance of success,” said Timothy McLarney, president of True North Research, at a City Council meeting last week. “I feel real good about where your numbers are.”

McLarney said his firm was contracted to survey a sample size of 600 voters and it ended up reaching an additional 250 voters in part because more people are home and have more time these days due to COVID-19. Interviews were conducted on the phone and via email on a password protected site.

The survey’s overall margin of error is 3.3%, meaning one can be 95% confident the results are within 3% of what would be found if all likely November voters were surveyed, McLarney said.

Support for the proposed measure also withstood counterarguments, including there are no guarantees how the funds can be spent and the council cannot be trusted with tax dollars; that passing the tax will hurt local hotels, businesses and the economy; and that the tax will last forever with no expiration date.

After those arguments are made, support for the proposed measure decreased just 2% and remained 22% above the simple majority threshold required for passage.

McLarney did note a poll is a snapshot in time and not a crystal ball and that much could change, especially given the circumstances, before November. That said, he’s still feeling confident the measure will pass.

“If you were sitting with a poll that was kind of on the bubble and you need simple majority and you have 53% or 54% I’d say all it’s going to take is a little crosswind here and you could be under water and not where you need to be,” he said. “The nice thing about your poll results is they’re strong enough. … You’ve got the buffer here to withstand a lot.”

zachary@smdailyjournal.com

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