Oil rises back above $100, but US stocks hold steadier after US-Iran talks failed to end the war

The oil market showed more concern, and prices there rose roughly 5%. But even there, prices pared bigger, earlier gains as the morning progressed.

After the weekend’s talks failed, President Donald Trump threatened a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that raises the pressure on Iran by trying to prevent it from making money by selling oil.

A blockade would keep even more oil off the global market, after prices already jumped for everyone worldwide because of shortfalls due to Iran’s restrictions on traffic in the important strait. That narrow waterway is how much of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf area reaches customers worldwide.

Iran responded by threatening all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

“Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported Monday. “NO PORT in the region will be safe,” according to a statement from the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guards.

The price of Brent crude, the international standard, rose back to $100.18 per barrel and is well above its roughly $70 price from before the war. But it remains below the $119 peak it’s touched at times, when worries about the U.S.-Iran war have been at their heights. It also pulled back from its nearly $104 price reached earlier Monday morning.

“Markets are taking some encouragement from the fact that the two sides are talking and that the broader ceasefire seems to be holding, for now,” according to Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

And, as with so many pronouncements made so far in the U.S.-Iran war, much will depend on the details of the blockade and exactly what gets restricted.

“Not all blockades are created the same,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management.

“The developments over the weekend might not be as negative for the markets as many fear.”

In the meantime, big U.S. companies are beginning to tell investors how much money they made during the first three months of the year.

Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, said it made $5.63 billion in profit during the quarter, more than investors expected. But financial analysts pointed to some potentially concerning signals underneath the surface, including lower revenue from the trading of fixed income, commodities and currencies. Its stock fell 4%.

Big banks traditionally lead earnings reporting season, and Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America will all report later this week. So will Johnson & Johnson, Netflix and PepsiCo.

In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury erased an earlier rise and was at 4.31%, where it was late Friday.

A report said that sales of previously occupied homes were weaker in March than economists expected. The housing market has taken a hit because of more expensive rates for mortgages, which have largely climbed with the 10-year Treasury yield on worries that the U.S.-Iran war will keep oil prices and inflation high.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe and Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.9% for two of the world’s larger losses.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director, Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong about the U.S.-Iran negotiations.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”

AP journalists Yuri Kageyama, Matt Ott and Mayuko Ono contributed to this report.