Curaçao and Cape Verde qualify for a super-sized World Cup, but a 4-time champion is on the brink

It was back in 2017 when world soccer's governing body announced controversial plans to expand the sport's flagship tournament from 32 teams to 48 in 2026. It would create opportunities, Infantino explained, for countries that “would never have dreamed to participate” in a World Cup.

“Congratulations to Curaçao on an incredible achievement. In only your fourth cycle as an independent nation, you've inspired us all with your deserved qualification,” Infantino said.

Some claimed the expansion was politically motivated. There were concerns about a dilution of quality and drama due to the expanded format.

That remains to be seen. But the bumper version of the tournament — staged in the United States, Canada and Mexico — has already created fascinating storylines long before it kicks off next June.

Newcomers and comebacks

The Caribbean island of Curaçao is the smallest nation by population ever to qualify for the World Cup — overtaking Iceland. Cape Verde is the third smallest.

Uzbekistan and Jordan are also first-time qualifiers and the playoffs could yet see more new faces with New Caledonia, Suriname, Kosovo and Albania all in the mix.

There are places, as well, for nations making long-awaited World Cup comebacks.

Scotland returns for the first time since 1998. The same goes for Norway — meaning Erling Haaland will grace the biggest stage in soccer for the first time — and Austria. Haiti has qualified for only the second time in its history, having last been to World Cup in 1974.

“This is the best feeling,” Scotland coach Steve Clarke said. “We’re there ... fantastic moment.”

More opportunities but giants have struggled

The expansion has undoubtedly created more opportunities for regions like CONCACAF, which gets six direct spots, including the three co-hosts. It also has two teams in the playoffs, whereas in 2022 it had three direct spots and another via the playoffs.

Africa had five teams previously, but now it has nine direct spots and one potential entry via the playoffs.

Yet even an expanded edition has still seen established nations struggle. Four-time world champion Italy is in danger of missing out for the third straight time after finishing second in its qualifying group.

The Italians — European champions in 2021 — must go through the playoffs if they are to end their World Cup exile.

That led to complaints from Italy coach Gennaro Gattuso.

“In my day, the best (group) runners-up went straight to the World Cup, now the rules have changed,” he said.

Despite Gattuso's complaints, Europe has more places than any other continent, with 16 teams — up from 13 — qualifying directly or via the playoffs.

There is an argument to say European qualifying can be too easy for the top nations. England qualified as group winner with a 100% record and without conceding a single goal. England has not lost a game in World Cup qualifying since 2009 — covering 39 matches.

Norway, which topped Italy's group, also had a 100% record in qualifying, while Croatia, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland all qualified unbeaten.

Changing of the guard

Italy's difficulties point to its own decline, having failed to qualify for the World Cup since 2014. That slump dates back further, with Italy being eliminated at the group stage of the last two World Cups it competed at — in 2010 and 2014, having won the tournament in 2006.

Germany won the last of its four world titles 2014 and has gone out at the group stage of the following two World Cups — suggesting the dominance of the established elite may no longer be guaranteed.

That is being felt beyond Europe as well.

Nigeria was, for so long, one of the powerhouses of African soccer and qualified for six out of seven editions from 1994-2018. Now it has missed out on the World Cup for the second time in succession, having also failed to qualify for Qatar in 2022.

Can newcomers and underdogs spring more surprises?

Curaçao and Cape Verde have already made history by qualifying for the World Cup and their success should inspire future generations — leading to further development of the game domestically.

That was what FIFA hoped an expanded tournament would achieve.

But the World Cup has been the stage for many famous upsets through the years. The United States stunned mighty England in 1950. In 2022, Saudi Arabia beat Lionel Messi and eventual world champion Argentina. Cameroon beat then-defending champion Argentina in 1990 and Senegal did the same to another defending champion, France, in 2002.

In 2022, Morocco became the first African nation to reach the World Cup semifinals — beating European giants Belgium, Spain and Portugal on the way.

The gap is closing and teams once considered outsiders now have genuine ambition of going deep into tournaments.

As host nation and with Mauricio Pochettino as coach, the United States will aim to better its best World Cup performance when it advanced to the quarterfinals in 2002. A recent revival that includes a 5-1 rout of Uruguay will have further lifted confidence.

But the likes of Argentina, Brazil, Spain and France remain the favorites to lift the trophy that has only been shared among eight nations in its 95-year history.

James Robson is at https://x.com/jamesalanrobson

AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer