Editorial: Do we need to expand SFO?

It has also been suggested that the new runways will reduce the noise level to the community by allowing different flight patterns. Yet another justification is that the next generation of large airliners, typified by the 600-seat Airbus A380, will have much larger wingspans than current aircraft and thus will need more spacing between parallel runways.

All of these arguments are valid at present and would be valid in the future if no new technology is developed or implemented in the next 20 years. However, it is clear that new technology will be developed and, with a less-reactionary attitude from the regulatory agencies, will be implemented in the air traffic system and in the aircraft of the future. What will this technology do?

There is a very good chance that the noise due to aircraft will be reduced to the level of freeway noise in the next ten years and reduced substantially by 2020. Global Positioning Satellite navigation will allow every airplane to locate its position, and the position of every other aircraft in the neighborhood, to within a few inches.

Control systems for the aircraft will allow completely automated, and very accurate, control of the airplane; actually, a human pilot will not be necessary other than for psychological reasons. The control system will allow take-off and landings in very windy conditions or in very low visibility and will virtually eliminate weather-related delays. Elimination of weather-related delays alone will increase the traffic through San Francisco Airport by about 25 percent.

If the improvements in air traffic management technology that are currently under development at FAA and NASA can be implemented, delays can be reduced further, again increasing throughput. Engines will be much less polluting than at present.

The estimated annual 5 percent growth of air traffic is based upon an extrapolation of current growth. It does not take account of the influence of increasingly restrictive environmental regulations or the effect of the Internet and other information technologies on transportation needs.

It is not clear whether either of these will increase or decrease air transport. However, at the moment the 5 percent growth factor is the best that can be estimated -- but it must be observed that there may be considerable error in this value.

All of this leads to the scenario that aircraft can take off and land in any weather with the same accuracy as they can today in clear conditions, that aircraft-generated noise and pollution will not be an issue for the communities in the vicinity of an airport. Very large aircraft, such as the Airbus A380, are designed to use existing airports, so the size issue is not really relevant.

If all of these technology improvements were implemented then there is no real need for an expansion of San Francisco Airport.

David Nixon, Ph.D., is Director of Education at Hiller Aviation Institute in San Carlos.<