Democratic angst and redistricting threaten state’s political reforms

A recent Public Policy Institute of California poll of voters found that Republicans Steve Hilton (14%) and Chad Bianco (12%) are first and third in support, with Katie Porter (13%) the leading Democrat, followed by Eric Swalwell (11%) and Tom Steyer (10%). The other six Democrats are all 5% or less.

Filing for the primary ballot closes this week, and Rusty Hicks, the Democratic state chairman, is publicly pleading for lower tier Democrats to drop out and thus reduce chances of a 1-2 GOP finish.

This week, in a public letter, Hicks said a 1-2 GOP primary outcome may be implausible, but “it is not impossible, and I know we are collectively committed to taking the steps required to avoid that possibility.”

So far, none of the bottom six has volunteered to quit. The angst is likely to fuel efforts to do away with the top-two system and return to closed party primaries, thereby eliminating any possibility of a future backdoor Republican win.

Neither party liked the top-two system when it was proposed during a stalemate on the state budget in 2009. Republican Sen. Abel Maldonado, backed by then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, said he’d vote for the budget only if Democrats placed the top-two system on the ballot, arguing that it would reduce polarization.

Democrats caved and Proposition 14, creating the system, was approved by voters in 2010. Given their dislike of the top-two system in the first place and what happened this year, it’s highly likely Democratic leaders will seek to eliminate it.

Leaders of both parties also disliked it when Charles Munger Jr., a wealthy Stanford University scientist, proposed the state shift the redrawing of legislative and congressional districts away from the legislature to an independent commission. Munger, backed by Schwarzenegger, contended it would end self-serving gerrymanders.

A Munger-financed ballot measure in 2008, Proposition 11, created the commission for legislative districts, and in 2010 Proposition 20 extended the commission to congressional districts. The commission drew new maps after the 2010 and 2020 censuses.

Last year, however, to counter a Texas effort to shift five congressional seats from Democrats to Republicans, Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed and voters passed Proposition 50. It gerrymanders California’s 52 congressional districts to gain at least five Democratic seats this year.

Newsom said the gerrymander was needed to blunt President Donald Trump’s efforts to skew the 2026 congressional election. Newsom promised that the radically revised districts would last for only three election cycles, and the commission system would return after the 2030 census.

But will it?

Let’s assume that the gerrymander gives Democrats five more California seats, creating a 48-4 partisan split. California is destined to lose at least four and perhaps five seats in total after the 2030 census, due to population stagnation. Nationally, blue states such as California and New York will lose congressional seats to faster-growing red states such as Florida and Texas.

Restoring the commission system could reduce Democratic ranks by as many as 10 seats, since the state’s more conservative interior counties are outpacing the liberal coastal region in population growth.

For all of these reasons, California Democratic leaders will be under tremendous pressure from the national party — and the Democrats who won seats in 2026 — to minimize losses. They can only do that by eliminating the commission and returning redistricting power to a Democratic-controlled legislature.

Dan Walters has been a journalist for more than 60 years, spending all but a few of those years working for California newspapers. He began his professional career in 1960, at age 16, at the Humboldt Times. CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics. He can be reached at dan@calmatters.org.