Chile's presidential race heads to a runoff between a communist and a pro-Trump conservative

José Antonio Kast, 59, a hard-right former lawmaker and devout Catholic opposed to same-sex marriage and abortion, captured almost 24% of the vote, underscoring the appeal of his law-and-order platform as a surge in organized crime rattles one of Latin America’s safest nations and foments anti-migrant sentiment among Chileans.

After learning he would advance to the next round, Kast urged the country's fractured right to unite behind him, framing the runoff as an existential struggle for Chile's future.

“It will be the most important election of our generation, a true referendum between two models of society — the current one that has led Chile to destruction, stagnation, violence and hatred,” he told fans, interrupted by cheers every few seconds. “And our model, which promotes freedom, hope and progress.”

Jara had a very different message.

“This is a great country,” she told supporters in downtown Santiago, the capital. “Don't let fear freeze your hearts."

Concern about crime and immigration boost the right

An admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro, Kast has vowed to deport tens of thousands of undocumented migrants and construct hundreds of kilometers of ditches and walls along Chile’s northern border with Bolivia to prevent people from crossing, particularly from crisis-stricken Venezuela.

“We want change, and that change today is about security,” José Hernández, the 60-year-old owner of an agricultural company said after casting his ballot for Kast.

Although voters gave Jara a slight edge on Sunday, Kast will likely benefit in the second round from a large share of votes that went to three eliminated right-wing challengers who campaigned aggressively on the need to tackle illegal immigration.

The third- and fourth-placed candidates were Franco Parisi, a right-leaning populist economist with a large social media following, with 20% of votes, and Johannes Kaiser, a radical libertarian and former YouTube provocateur elected as lawmaker in 2021, with 13.9%.

Chile’s constitution does not allow reelection to consecutive terms, so left-wing President Gabriel Boric, whose presidency ends in March, is not running.

Like her opponents, Jara has called security a top priority, promising plans to deport foreigners convicted of drug trafficking, boost controls along Chile’s borders and tackle money laundering.

“On the question of more jails, more punishments, more imprisonment, closing borders, restricting migrants, there is no debate anymore between the right and left,” said Lucía Dammert, a political scientist and Boric’s first chief of staff.

“But it’s an issue that always enhances the right, everywhere in Latin America.”

Winning over wary voters

The race now goes to a second round on Dec. 14. Analysts believe the starkly opposed Jara and Kast will tack to the middle ground in order to broaden their appeal.

“We will definitely see Jara and Kast after today being even more moderate, talking about things that voters care about and trying to compete for the center,” said Rodolfo Disi, a political scientist at Chile’s Adolfo Ibáñez University.

Over the next month, Jara faces the challenge of winning over voters concerned about her lifelong membership in Chile’s Communist Party, which supports authoritarian governments in Cuba and Venezuela. Jara came under fire early on in her campaign for referring to Cuba as a democracy.

“We liked her at first, but that moment was when our opinion shifted, it seemed like a really closed-minded view,” Camila Roure, 29, said outside a polling station. But as a woman, Roure said, she wouldn’t vote for Kast, citing his history of opposition to divorce and abortion, even in cases of rape.

Kast has sought to deflect attention from his commitment to what he calls traditional family values and his German-born father’s Nazi past, both of which mobilized progressive voters against him during his last two failed presidential bids, but he has made it clear that his views remain the same.

“A Kast government wouldn’t just be a political shift, it would be a huge step backward,” said Macarena Breke, 27, an English teacher who voted for Jara.

Jara promises a social safety net

President Boric, the young, tattooed ex-student protest leader who came to power in 2021 vowing to “bury neoliberalism” on the heels of mass unrest over inequality, has faced criticism from allies and rivals alike that his government failed to fulfill its sweeping promises of social change.

Economic discontent is simmering in one of Latin America’s most prosperous nations, with growth sluggish and unemployment up over 8.5%. The country retains its dictatorship-era constitution after voters rejected a government-backed charter that would have transformed Chile into one of the world’s most progressive societies.

But Boric’s government has several landmark welfare measures to show for itself — many of them thanks to Jara.

As labor minister, she raised the minimum wage, boosted pensions and shortened the workweek to 40 from 45 hours.

“The right is trying to sell this idea that the country is collapsing. But I don’t see that,” said Loreta Sleir, a 27-year-old who voted for Jara.

To address Chile’s cost-of-living crisis, which in 2019 helped fuel the country’s most significant social upheaval, Jara proposes a “living” monthly income of around $800 through state subsidies and minimum wage hikes. She promises to invest in big infrastructure projects and new housing.

Kast promises to shrink the state

Kast proposes quite the opposite.

Taking a page from the playbook of President Javier Milei in neighboring Argentina, he vows to shrink the public payroll, eliminate government ministries, slash corporate taxes and get rid of regulations.

He says he’ll make a staggering $6 billion in spending cuts over 18 months — a bid which, even if far-fetched, appeals to voters disconcerted by Chile's repeated fiscal deficits.

“The money disappears, the left spends it I don’t know what, human rights, and I can barely afford rent,” said Jorge Ruiz, 48, a cab driver who voted for Kast.

Although the 2% deficit this year pales in comparison to the economic woes elsewhere in the region — such as Argentina, where President Trump recently helped halt a currency crisis — it's rare in a country long hailed as a regional success story for its dedication to extreme laissez-faire economics.

It was Gen. Augusto Pinochet who first established that model, ensuring it lived on decades after the fall of his brutal dictatorship in 1990. Kast, whose brother served as a minister under Pinochet, has defended aspects of his legacy.

That dark chapter of Chile's history also lives on, experts say, in the nation's anxiety over security.

“From the moment that democracy arrived, Chile became fearful of criminal activity and distrustful of institutions, of foreigners,” said Dammert, the political scientist. “There was fertile ground for fear to grow.”