Florida's redistricting fight puts Ron DeSantis back in the Republican spotlight

With DeSantis' second term coming to a close, the special legislative session that starts Tuesday is one of his final opportunities to remind Republicans that he could lead the party one day. But there are also plenty of risks ahead for the 47-year-old governor.

Some Republicans are worried that a new map will backfire and make it easier for Democrats to pick up seats. In addition, DeSantis wants lawmakers to increase regulations for artificial intelligence and loosen vaccine requirements, two proposals that have previously stalled in Tallahassee.

Trump may be constitutionally barred from running for a third term in 2028, but that doesn't mean there's a clear path for DeSantis, who would likely have Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio to contend with in a Republican primary.

“The window for Ron looks reasonably narrow at this point,” said Whit Ayres, who served as DeSantis' pollster in his first campaign for governor in 2018.

DeSantis, for his part, is embracing the national fight. When House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., last week dared Florida Republicans to go ahead with their special session, the governor punched back with the kind of aggressiveness he showed in the early days of his failed White House bid.

“I will pay for you to come down to Florida and campaign,” DeSantis said of Jeffries. “I’ll put you up in the Florida governor’s mansion. We’ll take you fishing.”

DeSantis wants four more Republican seats

DeSantis unveiled his proposed map to Fox News on Monday even before it had been widely circulated among lawmakers. He argued that the 2020 census shortchanged the state's population, making it necessary to redraw the lines.

The governor's map, if approved, would reshape districts in Democratic areas around Orlando and Tampa Bay, while also condensing Democratic voters into fewer South Florida districts. The changes could cost Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, among others, their seats.

The current maps yielded a 20 to 8 Republican tilt in 2024. DeSantis' version would aim for an advantage of 24 to 4.

DeSantis first announced the special session back in January, months after Trump started pushing Republican-run states to redraw their congressional boundaries. What followed has been a tit-for-tat redistricting battle, with each party looking for an edge in the midterms.

There's no guarantee that new maps would play out the way parties hope. For example, Texas based its revised lines largely on Trump’s performance in 2024, theoretically redistributing the president's voters across more districts to pull them into the Republican column. But Trump's popularity has waned since his reelection, including among Latino voters that figure prominently in the state.

Florida could face a similar conundrum. If the state creates more majority-Republican districts but with thinner margins, it could dilute their advantage and give Democrats more opportunities to win seats, especially if there's an anti-Trump backlash at the polls this year.

“If Florida moves like it can, the Republicans will at least be even,” said Karl Rove, a former top political adviser to President George W. Bush. If Republicans get too aggressive, “they may lose a seat or two.”

Brian Ballard, an influential Florida lobbyist who has been DeSantis’ top fundraiser, said it’s worth remembering that DeSantis was the muscle behind the 2021 map that expanded Republicans’ advantage in the state to its current levels.

“He’s incredibly smart and capable,” Ballard said. “And he doesn’t get enough credit for that map. He’s done this before.”

Florida legislative leaders appear hesitant

Still, DeSantis will be testing his relationships with lawmakers, especially in a state House chamber that has grown more willing to buck the governor in recent sessions. House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton made clear for weeks that they were not drawing their own proposals and would react only to what DeSantis put forward.

Albritton has sent multiple memos to senators reminding them of Florida’s state constitutional limits on redistricting and the requirement that it not be done as a blatantly partisan act. Perez, who convened a redistricting panel last year, has said in recent weeks that he expects something to get done, but he’s been circumspect in his public statements.

“We’re ready to have that conversation,” he recently told WPLG in South Florida, before DeSantis released his proposal.

Besides redistricting, other topics won't be much easier. DeSantis wants to require tech companies to ensure children cannot interact with chatbots without parental permission. He also wants to prevent AI from generating harmful material for minors. The proposal will put DeSantis at odds with Trump, who wants the federal government to be the regulatory arbitrator of AI technology.

On vaccines, DeSantis wants to add a conscience-based exemption to public school vaccine requirements, similar to the existing religious exemption. The push aligns him with the anti-vaccine portion of the Trump base that was instrumental in pushing the president to tap Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his health secretary.

Versions of DeSantis' proposals have passed the state Senate previously but did not advance in the state House, where Perez has been skeptical.

Ballard downplayed concerns. What may seem to some as strained relations with certain Republican legislative leaders, he said, is simply measuring DeSantis against the opening years of his tenure.

“I mean, he went from batting a thousand to maybe batting .600,” Ballard said, using a baseball analogy for the governor who played the sport while attending Yale. “That isn’t failure.”

The White House is watching

It's hard to say how the session will affect DeSantis' relationship with Trump or the president's supporters.

Trump grew frustrated at DeSantis when they were competing for the Republican presidential nomination, calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious” on the campaign trail. The governor, at least initially, gave conservative establishment figures and key donors an option other than the then-former president.

But Trump seemingly forgave DeSantis when he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump following his victory in the Iowa caucuses. He even promised to call DeSantis by his actual name.

There's more bad blood within the White House, though. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, a Floridian, managed DeSantis’ razor-thin 2018 victory, only for the governor to have a falling out with her.

Wiles did not respond to a request for comment. But Ayres said he’s certain she’s paying attention.

“Donald Trump has a long memory, and Susie Wiles has a longer one,” he said. “And that doesn’t bode well for Gov. DeSantis to be Donald Trump’s Republican successor.”