Upcoming salmon forecast looks grim in San Mateo County

“This year, we’re seeing a lower forecast than the last two years, where we had closures,” she said. “It would be pre-decisional at this stage to infer that the council is going to follow precedent from the prior two years and recommend closures again.” 

While the CDFW’s forecast tools indicate there may be a “harvestable surplus” of salmon for fisheries in the coming year, Morgenstern said — which would be allocated through a quota system — some fishers say closing the season entirely and allowing the stock to repopulate is the only wise choice. 

“It’s worth it to give it a chance, to give it a hope,” said Tim Obert, a commercial fisher who serves on a number of boards — including the California Advisory Committee for Salmon, Trout and Steelhead. “A lot of people’s views are that way too. If we want to get our fishery back to a healthy fishery that’s sustainable, we have to.” 

Though population forecasts for adult salmon are low, numbers of returning adolescent fish are higher, Obert said, signaling long-term hope for a beleaguered salmon fishing industry. 

“I don’t think we should touch anything from this year right now. We see a little brighter glimpse of a better future,” he said. 

California representatives will work to develop recommendations for the upcoming salmon season through the first week of March, with a final decision made by the Pacific Fishery Management Council the second week of April. 

Decisions have been made increasingly complicated by the Trump administration’s cuts and audits of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency that monitors oceans and climate. 

The auditing — which has already resulted in the firing of hundreds of employees — is creating tumult with federal representatives who typically assist on salmon forecasting models during key regional fishery meetings, Obert said. 

“It’s a mess,” Obert said. “It’s not looking like this is going to be an easy process right now with the government.” 

The season forecast was not what local fishers were hoping for, James Pruett, general manager of the San Mateo County Harbor District, said. 

“It wasn’t a very good forecast for salmon season this year,” he said. “We are not expecting the salmon season to be completely open. We’re still hoping there might be some windows of opportunity where they’ll have it open for five days at a time, but I think that’s a dream too.” 

Some fishers might head north for the season, Pruett said, but most will have to wait out the continued bad news. 

“Fishing is like farming,” he said. “You get a long drought, you’ve got to wait for the rain.”