A new busway aimed at improving travel between south county and the East Bay is moving ahead, eventually involving the reactivation of an unused rail corridor just south of the Dumbarton Bridge.
The Peninsula’s Dumbarton railroad was built in the early 20th century but hasn’t been in operation for years. Instead of opening a new rail line, SamTrans plans to build a bus route along the rail corridor, which would connect East Palo Alto, North Fair Oaks and Redwood City to the old Dumbarton rail bridge.
“Today, the corridor is largely unused and remains a barrier, limiting mobility between communities, including East Palo Alto,” Major Corridors Program Manager Cassie Halls said. “But the outlook for regional rail is not something that we think is tenable at this point … it would cost an estimated $3.6 billion in 2024 dollars, and there isn’t the travel demand market that there was prior to the pandemic.”
Rail agencies like Caltrain and BART still struggle to recover pre-pandemic ridership. Though its more frequent service from electrification has helped, the former has yet to reach ridership levels that are, on average, more than half of 2019 figures. But bus operators are faring much better, with SamTrans just about fully recovering its pre-pandemic levels, largely a result of more local trips, rather than cross-Bay commutes. The average number of daily trips between Redwood City and East Palo Alto has increased by 30% since 2019, according to a staff presentation.
Prior to most recent discussions, a public-private partnership was underway between SamTrans and Meta, potentially using the railway to connect the Redwood City Caltrain station to the Union City BART station. But the project was scrapped around 2021, and the latest projections, which do not include Meta anymore, show that a busway would be more cost-efficient and have higher ridership.
“I’m really excited. This is truly an equity project,” David Canepa, SamTrans board member and president of the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, said. “One of the best things that probably happened to this agency was when Meta pulled out of funding for Dumbarton rail. The reason I say that is because, through ridership and how the buses are going to move through the corridor, I think this is probably the best solution for us.”
SamTrans approved a $2 million contract to kick-start the preliminary phases — which include both outreach and conceptual design work — and would take about 18 months, though some board members pushed for an even shorter timeline. Halls added that a rail line could still be reactivated in the future if the demand increased for such a service.
The project is expected to start construction by 2028 and is expected to cost about $150 million, according to previous estimates.
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