Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida lead title odds for March Madness, bettors expect chalky results

Bruce Marshall, handicapper for WagerTalk/Gold Sheet, said he could see a couple of other teams breaking through to make the Final Four in Indianapolis.

“I don't think we'll see all of them (No. 1 seeds) in the Final Four,” Marshall said. “Maybe somebody sneaks through on the three-line. I'd watch Virginia possibly. They've got a pretty good potential road in their region. That's Michigan's region. I think Michigan is beatable now.”

That said, Marshall said it's not that different from last season in which only a few teams have a realistic chance to win it all.

The NCAA selection committee also appeared to get most of the first-round matchups right, at least if going by the odds. There are only two favorites that are the lower-seeded teams, a pair of 8-9 matchups with Utah State favored by 2 1/2 points over Villanova and Iowa by the same number over Clemson.

“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season," said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field. From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again.”

UConn women big favorites to repeat

Connecticut is a big favorite at BetMGM and Caesars to win the women's NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row.

The Huskies as a two-seed defeated three No. 1s to win the 2025 title, but there is no sneaking up on this year’s field.

“UConn has been incredibly dominant, winning 29 straight games by double digits," Berbert said. "It’s one of the more remarkable runs we’ve seen in recent memory, and that dominance is reflected in their current title price of -280. ... In our view, UCLA presents the biggest potential challenge, but overall, it’s hard to see many teams standing in UConn’s way if they continue playing at this level.”

Top teams struggle in conference tournaments

On the men's side, Michigan and Florida weren't penalized by the committee for losing in their conference tournament and were given No. 1 seeds.

Duke survived two scares in winning the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, beating Florida State by a point and Virginia by four in the title game.

Arizona had the best week of the top seeds but had to be at its best to beat Iowa State and Houston by a combined seven points to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament championship.

“When we get to the Big Dance, what happens in the conference tournaments generally doesn't matter,” Marshall said. “Teams that lose in the conference tournaments often end up winning the whole thing. It might not be the best thing to play three, four days in a row in the week before the tournament, so I don't read too much into it.”

Looking for value plays

Bettors often look beyond the favorites in hopes of receiving a larger payout by hitting on a team that gets hot.

Johnny Avello, sports operations director for DraftKings Sportsbook, said he is watching UConn and Arkansas. DraftKings lists the Huskies at 30-1 odds and the Razorbacks at 60-1 even though Arkansas won the Southeastern Conference Tournament.

“In the future book, there are a few clear favorites at the top of the board, but there’s also a lot of value in the middle of the pack," Avello said. “Bettors can still find attractive prices on teams that have shown they can play at a high level this season.”

Will a 12-seed beat a No. 5?

It's nearly become expected that at least one No. 12 seed will defeat a No. 5 in the first round.

Texas Tech is the shortest favorite at BetMGM, listed at 7 1/2 points over Akron. Wisconsin is favored by 9 1/2 over High Point, Vanderbilt by 11 1/2 over McNeese State, and St. John's by 11 1/2 over Northern Iowa.

Marshall said he could see Akron and McNeese pulling the upsets.

“I don't think St. John's will lose to Northern Iowa,” said Marshall, who noted he thought the Red Storm were underseeded. “It'll just be a tough game. And I think Wisconsin will beat High Point, although High Point's kind of fun to watch.”

AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-mens-bracket and coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness