Recall race could signal shift in criminal justice approach

The Bay Area possesses a long tradition of dominating California politics, with Gov. Newsom, Sen. Feinstein, and four other statewide elected officials from the area. That political leadership has heavily influenced state laws, particularly on public safety issues. Boudin’s recall would show even Bay Area voters are questioning the efficacy of criminal justice “reforms.”

San Franciscans are some of the most tolerant people existing. They would rather see a person obtain help turning one’s life around than a lengthy prison sentence. But even such tolerance has limits. Voters note with their own eyes that crime is out of control. Yet Boudin has refused to alter his ideologically-driven approach. According to former prosecutors who resigned in mass from his office, his failure to manage San Francisco’s most important public safety office denies justice to victims and has a depressing effect upon people’s daily lives.

A poll last year found 40% of the city’s residents are planning to leave the city. Eighty percent agree that crime has worsened, while 70% say the quality of life has declined. If San Francisco residents are fed up and unwilling to support Boudin’s agenda, what does that indicate about the rest of the state?

Boudin’s recall election on June 7 will be a significant precursor for a race this November. Another Bay Area politician and supporter of criminal justice reforms, Rob Bonta, will seek reelection as attorney general after appointment to the office by Gov. Newsom.

There are already signs that Californians are wary of promises by criminal justice reforms adopted in the Bay Area. The failure of Proposition 25, which would’ve enacted a similar version of San Francisco’s bail and pretrial system, is one example. Proposition 25 was rejected by more than 2 million votes in 2020, and an attempt by state legislators last year to override this clear public mandate failed to win approval in the state Capitol.

Boudin strongly supports the San Francisco pretrial system despite deplorable results since its implementation. According to a comprehensive study by the California Policy Lab, 55% of inmates granted release while awaiting trial were arrested for another crime. Moreover, 1 in 6 were alleged to have committed a violent crime. This policy’s effect on the community was highlighted when a 94-year-old woman was nearly killed last year in an alleged knife attack by a man with a lengthy criminal record who’d been released from custody one week prior.

Boudin’s ouster would be a repudiation of those types of policies in the most liberal city in California and would certainly indicate a broader shift in attitudes across the state.

If Boudin is recalled on June 7, expect Attorney General Bonta to face a competitive race, especially if Sacramento DA Anne Marie Schubert, an independent famous for locating and prosecuting the Golden State rapist, reaches the general election.

The last time a Democrat nearly failed to win a statewide office was in 2010. Vice President Harris, then San Francisco’s district attorney, narrowly beat her Republican opponent in the same election in which Jerry Brown cruised to a double-digit victory in his return to the governor’s mansion. Much has changed since 2010, but it demonstrates Californians have been willing in the past to vote differently in attorney general races.

Bay Area voters could be the proverbial “canary in the coal mine,” but this time for significant changes in California’s criminal justice approach.

Quentin L. Kopp is president of the San Francisco Taxpayers Association, a former San Francisco supervisor, state senator and Superior Court judge.