The new “all-electric” rules adopted by the Bay Area Air Quality Management District are well intentioned, however, compliance will be expensive for homeowners (installation of gas water heaters will be banned starting in 2027 and gas furnaces banned in 2029).
I used to design and build solar and passive-energy houses. I also used to be vice president of a large electric utility, so I have “seen the man behind the curtain” (in his bathrobe and boxer shorts) in the utility world. Accordingly, I think I have some hands-on experience relevant to this debate. I would love to live in an all-electric world where the electricity is clean, reliable, affordable and derived from renewable sources. I think we can get there someday, but that is not the world we live in today.
The new BAAQMD rules don’t just apply to new construction. They also apply to existing houses. You can probably keep your existing gas furnace and gas water heater until they wear out. But when they need replacement, you will be required to replace them with electric heat pump units.
Most houses in our area were built with 100 amp main electrical services. Some older houses have 60 amp services. All of those will need to be upgraded to 200 amp or larger to serve the new loads. An alternative for 100 amp services is to install special switchgear that just starts shutting things off to keep the load below 100 amps.
You will then need to run a new 240 volt circuit to serve the new heat pump unit outdoors. Next, you will need to run another 240 volt circuit to the new heat pump water heater. You might also need to run new air ducts to carry outside air to and from the heat pump water heater, depending on where it is located (What a heat pump actually does is move heat energy from one medium to another. If you put a heat pump water heater in an enclosed closet, it will refrigerate the surrounding air and rapidly lose efficiency).
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Next you will need to run one or two 240 volt circuits for electric car chargers, since new fuel vehicles will probably be banned by state law. If you want a hot tub, that is one more 240 volt circuit. Weirdly, BAAQMD will still allow gas stoves, which are one of the easiest things to electrify. But “reach codes” will ban gas stoves in some cities.
All of this is possible. It is certainly easier in new construction than in an existing house, but none of it is a do-it-yourself project. You need a licensed electrician and a licensed plumber, at the bare minimum. If your existing gas water heater dies, the plumber won’t be able to just swap it out the next day. All of the electrical work will need to happen first.
In addition to the cost and complexity of modifying existing houses, there are other things to think about such as power outages. I once survived a weeklong power outage in zero degree weather (Not here, obviously). That was possible because of a house with a gas fireplace insert, a gas water heater and a gas stove. When my gas furnace (here) died a couple of years ago, I got by with two electric space heaters until repairs were performed. Personally, I don’t want to live in a house with a single energy source. I want some backup. Photovoltaic solar panels are a possibility, but they are one further modification to the house and one more expense.
Another consideration is the increased operating cost of heat pump systems. When I used to design solar and passive energy houses, the only way heat pump systems “penciled out” was when they were installed in houses with extremely good insulation and very efficient windows and doors. That is easy when you are building a new house. But if you install a heat pump system in an older house with mediocre insulation and windows, the electric bills can be quite high.
Maybe the environmental benefits of these new regulations will be worth the costs to individual homeowners. Time will tell. As an architect, I certainly want our buildings to be energy efficient and environmentally responsible. I just worry that the real world costs and impacts of the new rules to existing homeowners have not been fully explained.
Tom McCune is an architect and a member of the Belmont City Council.
Thank you, Mr. McCune, for a closer look at activities and considerations associated with converting to electric. This type of letter is much more useful than those repeating the false hope of saving the planet through electrifying households. For those interested, Claire Hao of the SF Chronicle recently penned an article about costs for swapping out gas heat for electric (https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/bay-area-gas-appliance-ban-full-cost-17843287.php). If folks decide to convert, they should convert based upon research and whether it works for them, instead of a belief they’ll “save the planet” especially since electricity continues to be mostly generated via natural gas power plants. And of course, China, India, and other developing nations will continue to burn fossil fuels to eventually become developed nations...
Thank you Tom for a well-balanced article. I wonder whether you could not replace Davina Hurt on the BAAQMD Board and the Air Resources Board for a different view that seems long overdue. Since this electrification effort is quite controversial and with unknown consequences, shouldn't these board decisions be redirected to the voters? I have little faith in the official communications that all constituents were fairly represented.
As a former builder I've always contended that it is too expensive to retro-fit a home with heat pumps and you have explained this in excellent detail. I'd add that radiators in heat pumps tend to corrode and become less efficient and they have noise and vibrations issues.
I didn't realize you needed to replace your old gas furnace with a heat pump. I thought an electric furnace would do. The decision by BAAQMD was ridiculous. I keep reading of potential lawsuits that would put a stop to the mandate, and hope they succeed. And having gone through an 8 hour electrical blackout yesterday, there's no way I believe that PG&E can suddenly go from a company that can't keep the lights on to one that can. Big companies don't change like that.
It sounds like you have some relevant experience. It would be great if you used it to help design programs to address the challenges over the 4 and 6 years before these rules take effect. Let’s embrace electrification as a necessary health and climate solution, particularly for marginalized communities; it’s a winning issue - 20-0. Let’s liberate ourselves from our obsolete dependence on dirty and dangerous fossil fuels.
ChrisFrank338 – from the letter, I thought it was clear how Mr. McCune feels about a single energy source. Unless Mr. McCune wants to help design and build nuclear or hydroelectric power plants, reliance on natural gas power plants will only increase, as more folks short-sightedly accept a single energy source (and paying dearly for that choice). Meanwhile China, Russia, and other developing nations, and even developed nations ramp up their use of fossil-fuel energy sources. Of course, let’s not forget one of the greenie gods, John Kerry, who singlehandedly has contributed over 300 metric tons of emissions since Biden stole office to the climate he wishes you to suffer for, under the excuse that private jets are the only choice for folks like him because he works harder than most. I’d say John Kerry’s mouth works harder than most, as for his actions, that leaves much to be desired, in the form of 300 metric tons of emissions. You have to wonder why so many bow at the feet of this hypocritical climate change god - perhaps real world costs and impacts of this all-electric boondoggle have not been fully understood. But don’t worry, people’s lighter wallets will understand.
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(8) comments
Excellent article! Sobering food for thought!
Thank you, Mr. McCune, for a closer look at activities and considerations associated with converting to electric. This type of letter is much more useful than those repeating the false hope of saving the planet through electrifying households. For those interested, Claire Hao of the SF Chronicle recently penned an article about costs for swapping out gas heat for electric (https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/bay-area-gas-appliance-ban-full-cost-17843287.php). If folks decide to convert, they should convert based upon research and whether it works for them, instead of a belief they’ll “save the planet” especially since electricity continues to be mostly generated via natural gas power plants. And of course, China, India, and other developing nations will continue to burn fossil fuels to eventually become developed nations...
Thank you Tom for a well-balanced article. I wonder whether you could not replace Davina Hurt on the BAAQMD Board and the Air Resources Board for a different view that seems long overdue. Since this electrification effort is quite controversial and with unknown consequences, shouldn't these board decisions be redirected to the voters? I have little faith in the official communications that all constituents were fairly represented.
As a former builder I've always contended that it is too expensive to retro-fit a home with heat pumps and you have explained this in excellent detail. I'd add that radiators in heat pumps tend to corrode and become less efficient and they have noise and vibrations issues.
Well written Mr. McCune.
I didn't realize you needed to replace your old gas furnace with a heat pump. I thought an electric furnace would do. The decision by BAAQMD was ridiculous. I keep reading of potential lawsuits that would put a stop to the mandate, and hope they succeed. And having gone through an 8 hour electrical blackout yesterday, there's no way I believe that PG&E can suddenly go from a company that can't keep the lights on to one that can. Big companies don't change like that.
It sounds like you have some relevant experience. It would be great if you used it to help design programs to address the challenges over the 4 and 6 years before these rules take effect. Let’s embrace electrification as a necessary health and climate solution, particularly for marginalized communities; it’s a winning issue - 20-0. Let’s liberate ourselves from our obsolete dependence on dirty and dangerous fossil fuels.
ChrisFrank338 – from the letter, I thought it was clear how Mr. McCune feels about a single energy source. Unless Mr. McCune wants to help design and build nuclear or hydroelectric power plants, reliance on natural gas power plants will only increase, as more folks short-sightedly accept a single energy source (and paying dearly for that choice). Meanwhile China, Russia, and other developing nations, and even developed nations ramp up their use of fossil-fuel energy sources. Of course, let’s not forget one of the greenie gods, John Kerry, who singlehandedly has contributed over 300 metric tons of emissions since Biden stole office to the climate he wishes you to suffer for, under the excuse that private jets are the only choice for folks like him because he works harder than most. I’d say John Kerry’s mouth works harder than most, as for his actions, that leaves much to be desired, in the form of 300 metric tons of emissions. You have to wonder why so many bow at the feet of this hypocritical climate change god - perhaps real world costs and impacts of this all-electric boondoggle have not been fully understood. But don’t worry, people’s lighter wallets will understand.
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