Almost there ...

County Elections Chief Mark Church projects a turnout of about 60% of the county’s 432,000-plus voters in tomorrow’s general election. That is better than the last non-presidential election in 2018, when turnout was only 50.5%, or 2014, with its dismal 46.3%. As of Nov. 3, just shy of 100,000 ballots had been turned in, only 23%. Expect a long, wait-filled week.

Meanwhile, in honor of legendary San Francisco Chronicle sports columnist Bruce Jenkins, here is my general election edition of Dead Wrong in Public.

15th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: When Jackie Speier announced she would not seek reelection, she gave a full-throated endorsement of Assemblymember Kevin Mullin. Ever since, there has been an air of inevitably about his win. His principal rival, Supervisor David Canepa, got off to a fast start and led for a while in fundraising and sheer energy. But it was unsustainable and Mullin finished in first in the primary, 17 points ahead of Canepa.

In the general election, Mullin continued to pile up money and endorsements while Canepa’s effort was subdued. The most notable activity was upwards of $500,000 in independent spending in support of Mullin by United Democracy Project, the political arm of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, the leading pro-Israel lobbying group in the country. The district has not seen this kind of attention since the late Tom Lantos held this seat.

The only real question — and not much of one at that — is how much Mullin will expand on his lead from the primary.

21st ASSEMBLY DISTRICT: San Mateo Councilmember Diane Papan, aided by heavy independent expenditures, trounced Redwood City Councilmember Giselle Hale in the primary, finishing nearly 22 points ahead. Hale’s response was to cease all campaigning. History shows that in a two-candidate race, anyone can get 35% of the vote just by being on the ballot. It is not exactly a bold prediction to expect a Papan landslide.

SUPERVISOR, DISTRICT 2: We may have to wait the longest for final results in the race between Belmont Councilmember Charles Stone and San Mateo-Foster City School District Trustee Noelia Corzo for the seat being vacated by Carole Groom.

Stone has every major endorsement, including Speier and Groom, but Corzo has kept pace in fundraising. Corzo has been trying to counter Stone’s broader appeal with turnout among women and minority communities. She hoped to recreate the insurgent coalition that handily won the sheriff’s race for Christina Corpus, who did not endorse in this race. But Corpus’ win likely was a difficult-to-duplicate set of circumstances. Meanwhile, the establishment-rooted coalition behind Stone is in place and formidable. The insider betting is that it will be close, but Stone will squeak through.

SUPERVISOR, DISTRICT 3: The race between councilmembers Laura Parmer-Lohan and Ray Mueller for the seat being vacated by Don Horsley (who endorsed Parmer-Lohan) has been neck and neck from the outset in fundraising and in the primary voting, which Mueller won by 1,110 votes. Parmer-Lohan has gone negative through emails in the waning days of the campaign, but the consensus is that she has been struggling to maintain some measure of momentum. This is the largest of the supervisorial districts and the whitest — 72%. This also means it is likely to be the most conservative and least moved by Parmer-Lohan’s pitch that the board should have at least one woman supervisor.

OTHER RACES WE ARE WATCHING: In San Mateo, the battle is over majority control of the City Council. The question is whether abortion rights will be the wedge issue some hope it to be in the race for District 5 between Rod Linhares and Adam Loraine. … In Redwood City, we will see if the new world of districts means Jerome Madigan can deny Diane Howard a seventh council term. … In Menlo Park, the hottest race is over Measure V, the initiative that would put the brakes on building multi-family housing on single-family parcels. If it passes, expect similar measures in other cities. Related to that is the race for City Council between incumbent Betsy Nash and Peter Ohtaki, who was ousted from the council four years ago in the city’s first foray into district elections.

There are so many others that it borders on chaos. That seems fitting for 2022.

Mark Simon is a veteran journalist, whose career included 15 years as an executive at SamTrans and Caltrain. He can be reached at marksimon@smdailyjournal.com.