Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hopes for big win in national elections

She wants to make progress on a right-wing agenda that aims to boost Japan’s economy and military capabilities as tensions grow with China. She also wants to nurture ties with her crucial U.S. ally, and a sometimes unpredictable President Donald Trump.

Popular leader poised to win big

The ultraconservative Takaichi, who took office as Japan’s first female leader in October, pledged to “work, work, work,” and her style, which is seen as both playful and tough, has resonated with younger fans.

The latest surveys indicated a landslide win in the lower house for the LDP. The opposition, despite the formation of a new centrist alliance and a rising far-right, is seen as too splintered to be a real challenger.

Takaichi is betting that her LDP party, together with its new partner, the Japan Innovation Party, will secure a majority in the 465-seat lower house, the more powerful of Japan’s two-chamber parliament.

Recent surveys by major Japanese newspapers show a possibility that Takaichi’s party could win a simple majority on its own while her coalition could win as many as 300 seats, a big jump from a thin majority it held since a 2024 election loss.

If the LDP fails to win a majority, “I will step down,” she said.

Pushing right-wing policies

A big win by Takaichi’s coalition could mean a significant shift to the right in Japan’s security, immigration and other policies, with its right-wing partner JIP's leader Hirofumi Yoshimura saying his party will serve as an “accelerator.”

Japan has recently seen far-right populists gain ground, such as the anti-globalist and surging nationalist party Sanseito.

Takaichi has pledged to revise security and defense policies by December to bolster Japan’s offensive military capabilities, lifting a ban on weapons exports and moving further away from the country’s postwar pacifist principles.

She has been pushing for tougher policies on foreigners, anti-espionage and other measures that resonate with a far-right audience but ones that experts say could undermine civil rights.

Takaichi also wants to increase defense spending in response to Trump’s pressure on Japan to loosen its purse strings.

‘Nation splitting policies’ not clearly explained

Though Takaichi said she is seeking the public's mandate for her “nation splitting policies,” she avoided contentious issues such as ways to fund soaring military spending, how to fix diplomatic tension with China and other controversial issues.

In her campaign speeches, Takaichi enthusiastically talked about the need for “proactive” government spending to fund “crisis management investment and growth,” such as measures to strengthen economic security, technology and other industries. Takaichi also seeks to push tougher measures on immigration and foreigners, including stricter requirements for foreign property owners and a cap on foreign residents.

The snap election after only three months in office “underscores a problematic trend in Japanese politics in which political survival takes priority over substantive policy outcomes,” said Masato Kamikubo, a Ritsumeikan University politics professor. “Whenever the government attempts necessary but unpopular reforms ... the next election looms.”

Impact of snow and younger voters is uncertain

There are some uncertainties. The hastily called election that gave little time for people to prepare has already invited complaints.

Sunday’s vote also began under fresh snowfall across the country, including in Tokyo. Record snowfall in northern Japan over the past few weeks, which blocked roads and was blamed for dozens of deaths nationwide, could hinder voting or delay vote counting in hard-hit areas. How her popularity will translate into votes among younger voters, notorious for their low turnout, during bad weather is unpredictable.

Kazuki Ishihara, 54, said she voted for the LDP for stability and in hopes for something new under Takaichi. “I have some hope that she could do something” her predecessors could not.

A 50-year-old office worker Yoshinori Tamada said his interest is wages. “I think a lot when I look at my pay slip, and I cast my vote for a party that I believe I can trust in that regard.”

Associated Press video journalist Mayuko Ono in Tokyo contributed to this report.